It has been a long time coming, but policymakers in parts of the region are gearing up to begin tightening monetary policy. The Central Bank of Turkey accelerated its so-called ‘exit strategy’ from last year’s stimulus measures earlier this month, while the Polish MPC voted on (but rejected) a 50bps hike in its August meeting. But although there is an increasing chance that a first rate hike in Poland arrives sooner than we have pencilled in, underlying price pressures remain benign and the overall pace of tightening should still be gradual.
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