A modest improvement in the outlook for Western Europe means that some countries in Emerging Europe - notably Poland, Turkey and the Czech Republic - could now see a return to positive growth in Q1 of next year. But while the recovery may come slightly sooner than we had initially expected in some countries, it will be extremely sluggish. And the outlook for the rest of the region remains grim. A fragile banking sector continues to weigh on the outlook for Russia, Hungary and Romania, the latter two of which may not register positive growth until the end of next year. Meanwhile, there remains a very real and growing risk of a messy devaluation in the Baltics and Bulgaria. In the absence of evidence of a stronger recovery in Western Europe, we remain decidedly downbeat.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services