Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov) The jump in the goods trade surplus to a 13-year high in November is another sign that the flooding in British Columbia had only a small impact on overall economic activity. It confirms that the... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions to weigh on first-quarter GDP growth The economy gained momentum at the start of the fourth quarter and we have revised up our forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 5.5% annualised, from 4.0%. Given the rapidly deteriorating... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The strong rise in GDP in October and preliminary estimate of another solid gain in November imply that fourth quarter GDP growth will be stronger than the Bank of Canada anticipated, and means the... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Restrictions may not derail Bank’s tightening plans The closure of many high-contact services in Quebec yesterday is likely to soon be matched by tighter coronavirus restrictions elsewhere. That said, if other provinces also allow stores and... 21st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales rose strongly in October and the preliminary estimate points to another solid gain in November. That is likely to mark the peak for the next few months, however, as the rapidly... 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong Q4 but growing downside risks to Q1 The activity data released this week suggest that the economy was in a strong position in the fourth quarter and the price data imply that inflationary pressures are broadening. The surge in... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices rose at a more modest pace in November, but the increase in the Bank’s preferred measure of core inflation suggests that price pressures are broadening. Note: Central Bank Drop-In –... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government fails to deliver on election pledges The government’s fall fiscal update suggests the public finances will be in a better position in the coming years than we had assumed, but this is largely because the government chose not to deliver... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s updated framework maintains the status quo The Bank of Canada’s updated policy framework will not have a material effect on policy over the next couple of years, but it does support our forecast that inflation will be slightly higher on... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank growing more concerned about cost pressures The Bank of Canada’s increased concerns about wage and cost pressures suggest it will start to tighten policy in April, especially if the government loosens fiscal policy in next week’s fall fiscal... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank keeps policy rate guidance unchanged The Bank of Canada’s unchanged policy rate guidance implies it could wait until the third quarter before raising rates but, given wage growth is now picking up sharply, we expect it to pull the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Oct) The restart of motor vehicle production across the continent boosted Canada’s exports and imports sharply in October, although there are downside risks to trade in November due to the infrastructure... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to hike sooner as labour market nears full health As the labour market is nearing a full recovery and wages are rising strongly, we now expect the Bank to hike interest rates in April, rather than waiting until July, as we previously expected. 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The surge in employment in November and the further strong gain in average earnings have arguably tipped the odds in favour of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates in the first half of next year... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update A last hurrah for housing We are not convinced by the Bank of Canada’s view that the renewed strength of house prices is due to “extrapolative expectations”. With mortgage rates jumping recently, the large price gain in... 2nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy rate guidance unchanged Growing wage pressures and the renewed strength of house prices are likely to concern the Bank of Canada but, with oil prices plunging in the past week due to fears about the Omicron variant, we doubt... 1st December 2021 · 7 mins read
