Attention this month focused on unfolding political dramas in Africa’s key economies. The president of South Africa narrowly saw off another no-confidence vote, Kenya’s president was re-elected in a vote that the opposition claim was rigged, and Nigeria’s ailing leader returned to work after a long battle with an undisclosed illness. Angola elected its first new president for 38 years, with early signs suggesting that the long-ruling MPLA remained in power. None of these events, however, will have much of an economic effect. Recent activity figures have mostly supported our existing views. New figures suggest that the economies of Nigeria and South Africa both strengthened in recent months. We expect that data released in September will show that both countries exited recession in Q2. Kenya’s economy also seems to have picked up a bit in Q2, while Angola’s remained weak.
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