Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note Thinking through the economic consequences of a vaccine Big efficacy, production and distribution hurdles lie between here and “normality” Is a vaccine against SARS-Co-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, now within reach? And if so, will it... 17th August 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Why History May Not Repeat In Covid’s Aftermath Key differences with previous downturns may confound gloom about the long-term economic effects The global economy has now suffered two “once-in-a-lifetime” shocks in the space of less than 15 years... 10th August 2020 The Chief Economist's Note The Case of the Falling Dollar One explanation for the greenback’s weakness stands out In what’s been, at least by the standards of 2020, a relatively quiet summer period for financial markets, one question has stood out: what’s... 3rd August 2020 The Chief Economist's Note The ‘fundamental uncertainty’ of a double-dip recession Will new outbreaks of the coronavirus cause “double-dip” recessions? In truth, it’s impossible to say, not least because we don’t know what form any new outbreaks of the virus will take. Since we’re... 27th July 2020 The Chief Economist's Note V-shaped so far – but now for the hard part Developments over the past week or so have emboldened both the optimists and the pessimists. The good news is that the incoming data continue to suggest a recovery that is about as v-shaped as we... 6th July 2020 The Chief Economist's Note No time for caution Governments should help the recovery – provided it’s with the right kind of stimulus The past fortnight has seen a growing push in some quarters for additional fiscal stimulus to bolster the recovery... 29th June 2020 The Chief Economist's Note A tale of two lockdowns Recovery will hinge on the confidence of involuntary savers to spend post-lockdown The pandemic has done strange things to household finances. On the one hand, it has had a devastating impact on some... 22nd June 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Tracking the recovery Our new indicators compare how successfully economies are shaking off the coronavirus impact Two of the questions we are asked most frequently by clients are: why has the pandemic caused more economic... 15th June 2020 The Chief Economist's Note After the pandemic, what next? In last week’s note I argued that there were signs that the economic collapse caused by the pandemic was bottoming out, but that the recovery was likely to be slow going and uneven. In this week’s... 8th June 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Turning the corner There are growing signs that the collapse in economic activity caused by the pandemic has bottomed out and a recovery is underway. Admittedly, most of the PMI surveys for May (released today) remain... 1st June 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Crisis has demonstrated power - and limits - of central banks The current crisis has demonstrated the huge influence wielded by central banks. But it has also revealed how some of that influence has started to wane. To understand why, it’s helpful to think about... 18th May 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Thinking through the consequences for debt and inflation There are growing concerns in some corners of the market about the size and scope of government and central bank support packages. Some of these concerns rest on a belief that recessions are necessary... 11th May 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Governments flying blind as lockdowns are lifted Since the scale of the human, social and economic cost wrought by the coronavirus has become clear, politicians have compared the challenge of fighting it to that of a major war. It is easy to see why... 4th May 2020 The Chief Economist's Note The effects of the coronavirus will reverberate for decades to come Last week I outlined how and when virus-induced shutdowns are likely to be eased. This week I discuss how the world may have changed when economies reopen. As I have noted before, the lockdowns have... 27th April 2020 The Chief Economist's Note A grand or gradual re-opening? Last week brought further evidence of the scale of the economic damage that is being inflicted by virus-induced shutdowns. Two questions now hang over markets: how and when will shutdowns end, and how... 20th April 2020 The Chief Economist's Note How to think about the inflationary consequences of COVID-19 Of the many questions we received during a series of webinars that we held late last month, the most common was whether the Coronavirus shock would be inflationary or disinflationary. The answer... 6th April 2020 Pagination Previous … Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Current page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note Thinking through the economic consequences of a vaccine Big efficacy, production and distribution hurdles lie between here and “normality” Is a vaccine against SARS-Co-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, now within reach? And if so, will it... 17th August 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Why History May Not Repeat In Covid’s Aftermath Key differences with previous downturns may confound gloom about the long-term economic effects The global economy has now suffered two “once-in-a-lifetime” shocks in the space of less than 15 years... 10th August 2020
The Chief Economist's Note The Case of the Falling Dollar One explanation for the greenback’s weakness stands out In what’s been, at least by the standards of 2020, a relatively quiet summer period for financial markets, one question has stood out: what’s... 3rd August 2020
The Chief Economist's Note The ‘fundamental uncertainty’ of a double-dip recession Will new outbreaks of the coronavirus cause “double-dip” recessions? In truth, it’s impossible to say, not least because we don’t know what form any new outbreaks of the virus will take. Since we’re... 27th July 2020
The Chief Economist's Note V-shaped so far – but now for the hard part Developments over the past week or so have emboldened both the optimists and the pessimists. The good news is that the incoming data continue to suggest a recovery that is about as v-shaped as we... 6th July 2020
The Chief Economist's Note No time for caution Governments should help the recovery – provided it’s with the right kind of stimulus The past fortnight has seen a growing push in some quarters for additional fiscal stimulus to bolster the recovery... 29th June 2020
The Chief Economist's Note A tale of two lockdowns Recovery will hinge on the confidence of involuntary savers to spend post-lockdown The pandemic has done strange things to household finances. On the one hand, it has had a devastating impact on some... 22nd June 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Tracking the recovery Our new indicators compare how successfully economies are shaking off the coronavirus impact Two of the questions we are asked most frequently by clients are: why has the pandemic caused more economic... 15th June 2020
The Chief Economist's Note After the pandemic, what next? In last week’s note I argued that there were signs that the economic collapse caused by the pandemic was bottoming out, but that the recovery was likely to be slow going and uneven. In this week’s... 8th June 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Turning the corner There are growing signs that the collapse in economic activity caused by the pandemic has bottomed out and a recovery is underway. Admittedly, most of the PMI surveys for May (released today) remain... 1st June 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Crisis has demonstrated power - and limits - of central banks The current crisis has demonstrated the huge influence wielded by central banks. But it has also revealed how some of that influence has started to wane. To understand why, it’s helpful to think about... 18th May 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Thinking through the consequences for debt and inflation There are growing concerns in some corners of the market about the size and scope of government and central bank support packages. Some of these concerns rest on a belief that recessions are necessary... 11th May 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Governments flying blind as lockdowns are lifted Since the scale of the human, social and economic cost wrought by the coronavirus has become clear, politicians have compared the challenge of fighting it to that of a major war. It is easy to see why... 4th May 2020
The Chief Economist's Note The effects of the coronavirus will reverberate for decades to come Last week I outlined how and when virus-induced shutdowns are likely to be eased. This week I discuss how the world may have changed when economies reopen. As I have noted before, the lockdowns have... 27th April 2020
The Chief Economist's Note A grand or gradual re-opening? Last week brought further evidence of the scale of the economic damage that is being inflicted by virus-induced shutdowns. Two questions now hang over markets: how and when will shutdowns end, and how... 20th April 2020
The Chief Economist's Note How to think about the inflationary consequences of COVID-19 Of the many questions we received during a series of webinars that we held late last month, the most common was whether the Coronavirus shock would be inflationary or disinflationary. The answer... 6th April 2020
