Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note Checking in on our key calls With Q2 behind us, now seems a good time to revisit some of the forecasts for 2019 that we made at the start of the year. At the risk of blowing our trumpet too hard, I think – with one or two... 1st July 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Problems in Italy still bubbling under the surface Markets spent most of last week processing a dovish shift by two of the world’s major central banks. First came a speech by Mario Draghi, in which he gave the clearest indication yet that the ECB is... 25th June 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Hunkering down for a long trade war In last week’s note I sketched out the costs so far of President Trump’s trade war. In this week’s note I turn my attention to the economic damage it may cause in the future. Three points are worth... 17th June 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Pinning down the costs of the trade war President Trump may have called off his plan to impose tariffs on Mexico, but a deal with China appears to be further away than ever. This raises two questions. First, to what extent has the president... 10th June 2019 The Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown and what it means for the rest of the world This week we are hosting an event in Frankfurt that will explore China’s changing role in the global economy. (If you are interested in attending, register here.) Regular readers will know that, in... 3rd June 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Trade, the Fed and why productivity holds the key Last week we held a series of conferences in North America. You can find recordings of our presentations here. Two recurring questions were asked by clients. The first was how the latest escalation in... 20th May 2019 The Chief Economist's Note The changing face of EM debt risks In the carousel of concerns that revolve around financial markets, one that’s particularly close to my heart is the subject of EM debt. Troubles in Turkey and Argentina have meant that concerns about... 13th May 2019 The Chief Economist's Note What to make of the latest rise in oil prices Oil has been thrust back into the headlines over the past week following a spike in prices that has taken Brent crude back to around $75pb. As a result, the price of Brent has now risen by 45% from... 29th April 2019 The Chief Economist's Note China’s other slowdown Another week, and another set of figures that suggest China’s economy has begun to find its feet. Last week’s release of activity data for March showed that, having slowed for the best part of a year... 22nd April 2019 The Chief Economist's Note A very British farce I have been loath to wade into the debate around Brexit in these notes. That’s partly because it has become a sorry and depressing tale of abject political failure on pretty much every side in the UK... 15th April 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Springtime for the global economy? Three pieces of data released last week brought hope that, having slowed for the best part of six months, the world economy may now be starting to stabilise. First came March’s Caixin manufacturing... 8th April 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Bond markets flash red on the real economy Unless you’ve locked yourself away in a dark room for the past week (and, for UK readers, that would be entirely understandable given the debacle over Brexit), then you’ll have heard plenty of... 1st April 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Picking apart the threat from secular stagnation A recent paper by Larry Summers and Lukasz Rachel has been doing the rounds among economists and has revived debate in financial markets about “secular stagnation”. But what is “secular stagnation”... 25th March 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Taking stock of the health of the global economy The continued weakness in key economic data, together with the recent abrupt change in tone by the European Central Bank, has prompted renewed questions about the health of the global economy. At... 18th March 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Why the consensus on Asia is wrong – and why it matters for the rest of the world Last week we held a series of conferences across Asia and Australia discussing the outlook for the global economy and financial markets. You can find recordings of all our presentations here. A... 11th March 2019 The Chief Economist's Note The dangers of over-interpreting a US-China trade deal We seem to be moving towards an agreement between the US and China on trade. What would this mean for the global economy? The finer points of the deal are still unclear, but it is likely to involve... 4th March 2019 Pagination Previous … Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Current page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Next
The Chief Economist's Note Checking in on our key calls With Q2 behind us, now seems a good time to revisit some of the forecasts for 2019 that we made at the start of the year. At the risk of blowing our trumpet too hard, I think – with one or two... 1st July 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Problems in Italy still bubbling under the surface Markets spent most of last week processing a dovish shift by two of the world’s major central banks. First came a speech by Mario Draghi, in which he gave the clearest indication yet that the ECB is... 25th June 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Hunkering down for a long trade war In last week’s note I sketched out the costs so far of President Trump’s trade war. In this week’s note I turn my attention to the economic damage it may cause in the future. Three points are worth... 17th June 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Pinning down the costs of the trade war President Trump may have called off his plan to impose tariffs on Mexico, but a deal with China appears to be further away than ever. This raises two questions. First, to what extent has the president... 10th June 2019
The Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown and what it means for the rest of the world This week we are hosting an event in Frankfurt that will explore China’s changing role in the global economy. (If you are interested in attending, register here.) Regular readers will know that, in... 3rd June 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Trade, the Fed and why productivity holds the key Last week we held a series of conferences in North America. You can find recordings of our presentations here. Two recurring questions were asked by clients. The first was how the latest escalation in... 20th May 2019
The Chief Economist's Note The changing face of EM debt risks In the carousel of concerns that revolve around financial markets, one that’s particularly close to my heart is the subject of EM debt. Troubles in Turkey and Argentina have meant that concerns about... 13th May 2019
The Chief Economist's Note What to make of the latest rise in oil prices Oil has been thrust back into the headlines over the past week following a spike in prices that has taken Brent crude back to around $75pb. As a result, the price of Brent has now risen by 45% from... 29th April 2019
The Chief Economist's Note China’s other slowdown Another week, and another set of figures that suggest China’s economy has begun to find its feet. Last week’s release of activity data for March showed that, having slowed for the best part of a year... 22nd April 2019
The Chief Economist's Note A very British farce I have been loath to wade into the debate around Brexit in these notes. That’s partly because it has become a sorry and depressing tale of abject political failure on pretty much every side in the UK... 15th April 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Springtime for the global economy? Three pieces of data released last week brought hope that, having slowed for the best part of six months, the world economy may now be starting to stabilise. First came March’s Caixin manufacturing... 8th April 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Bond markets flash red on the real economy Unless you’ve locked yourself away in a dark room for the past week (and, for UK readers, that would be entirely understandable given the debacle over Brexit), then you’ll have heard plenty of... 1st April 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Picking apart the threat from secular stagnation A recent paper by Larry Summers and Lukasz Rachel has been doing the rounds among economists and has revived debate in financial markets about “secular stagnation”. But what is “secular stagnation”... 25th March 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Taking stock of the health of the global economy The continued weakness in key economic data, together with the recent abrupt change in tone by the European Central Bank, has prompted renewed questions about the health of the global economy. At... 18th March 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Why the consensus on Asia is wrong – and why it matters for the rest of the world Last week we held a series of conferences across Asia and Australia discussing the outlook for the global economy and financial markets. You can find recordings of all our presentations here. A... 11th March 2019
The Chief Economist's Note The dangers of over-interpreting a US-China trade deal We seem to be moving towards an agreement between the US and China on trade. What would this mean for the global economy? The finer points of the deal are still unclear, but it is likely to involve... 4th March 2019
