Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note What explains the global slowdown? What’s behind the slowdown in the global economy in recent months? It’s a question we’re often asked by clients – and one to which there is no simple answer. Part of the problem is that it’s often... 25th February 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Policymakers still have ammunition – but will they use it? Do policymakers have sufficient ammunition to fight the next economic downturn? It’s a question that’s vexing economists - and at first sight the answer appears to be “no”. After all, on the fiscal... 18th February 2019 The Chief Economist's Note If you only watch one chart, make sure it’s this one Will the recent weakness in a broad swathe of economic data be a flash in the pan or does it herald the start of a new global downturn? The answer is likely to depend in part on what happens to... 11th February 2019 The Chief Economist's Note Time for policymakers outside the US to step up to the plate With concerns about the outlook for the global economy starting to build, thoughts are turning to what policymakers might do to support growth. A common refrain is that the current low level of real... 4th February 2019 The Chief Economist's Note As the data collapse, what might we be missing? Annual gatherings, like those in Davos last week, tend to produce little in the way of meaningful policy shifts, but they can be a useful way of gauging the mood about the global economy. This year it... 28th January 2019 The Chief Economist's Note In defence of central banks Populist governments have already challenged several areas of received economic wisdom, so it was perhaps only a matter of time before they turned their focus to central banks. As ever, President... 21st January 2019 The Chief Economist's Note China’s role in the coming global slowdown The market sell-off in the final weeks of last year was driven in part by fears about an over-zealous Fed, but also by growing concerns about the health of China’s economy. So is it time to worry... 14th January 2019 The Chief Economist's Note What to watch for in 2019 In my note last week I sketched out a comparatively bright outlook for the global economy over the long run. In contrast, the economic outlook for next year is rather more challenging – and this is... 17th December 2018 The Chief Economist's Note Taking the long view The conventional view of the long-term prospects for the global economy can be summarised as: EMs good, DMs bad. Like most things, however, we suspect that the conventional view is likely to be wrong... 10th December 2018 The Chief Economist's Note The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might... 3rd December 2018 The Chief Economist's Note Picking through the Brexit shambles While US readers were settling in for Thanksgiving dinners, those of us on the other side of the pond were left to pick over the remains of a Brexit deal that looks dead on arrival. Our UK economists... 26th November 2018 The Chief Economist's Note Worrying signs in the latest data Brexit, oil and tech stocks grabbed the headlines last week but it was third quarter GDP data from Germany and Japan that provided the most ominous signs about the outlook for the global economy... 16th November 2018 The Chief Economist's Note Distilling the gloomy news from Europe The recent flow of both news and data from Europe has painted an increasingly gloomy picture and events this week are unlikely to provide much respite, with Italy’s government facing a deadline on... 12th November 2018 The Chief Economist's Note The economics of rising populism Victory for Jair Bolsonaro in last weekend’s presidential election in Brazil has once again led to questions about the links between rising populism and economic growth. This is becoming well-trodden... 5th November 2018 The Chief Economist's Note The economics of Italy’s fiscal tightrope Last week saw a further escalation in the standoff between the EU and Italy, with Brussels taking the unprecedented step of rejecting Rome’s budget plan for 2019. We’ve written about the simmering... 29th October 2018 The Chief Economist's Note The real reason to worry about the US deficit In a week of breathless headlines (Brexit, Italy and Brexit again…) last Monday’s news that the US budget deficit widened to a six-year high of $779bn in the fiscal year ending September 30 th crept... 22nd October 2018 Pagination Previous … Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Current page 16 Page 17 Next
The Chief Economist's Note What explains the global slowdown? What’s behind the slowdown in the global economy in recent months? It’s a question we’re often asked by clients – and one to which there is no simple answer. Part of the problem is that it’s often... 25th February 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Policymakers still have ammunition – but will they use it? Do policymakers have sufficient ammunition to fight the next economic downturn? It’s a question that’s vexing economists - and at first sight the answer appears to be “no”. After all, on the fiscal... 18th February 2019
The Chief Economist's Note If you only watch one chart, make sure it’s this one Will the recent weakness in a broad swathe of economic data be a flash in the pan or does it herald the start of a new global downturn? The answer is likely to depend in part on what happens to... 11th February 2019
The Chief Economist's Note Time for policymakers outside the US to step up to the plate With concerns about the outlook for the global economy starting to build, thoughts are turning to what policymakers might do to support growth. A common refrain is that the current low level of real... 4th February 2019
The Chief Economist's Note As the data collapse, what might we be missing? Annual gatherings, like those in Davos last week, tend to produce little in the way of meaningful policy shifts, but they can be a useful way of gauging the mood about the global economy. This year it... 28th January 2019
The Chief Economist's Note In defence of central banks Populist governments have already challenged several areas of received economic wisdom, so it was perhaps only a matter of time before they turned their focus to central banks. As ever, President... 21st January 2019
The Chief Economist's Note China’s role in the coming global slowdown The market sell-off in the final weeks of last year was driven in part by fears about an over-zealous Fed, but also by growing concerns about the health of China’s economy. So is it time to worry... 14th January 2019
The Chief Economist's Note What to watch for in 2019 In my note last week I sketched out a comparatively bright outlook for the global economy over the long run. In contrast, the economic outlook for next year is rather more challenging – and this is... 17th December 2018
The Chief Economist's Note Taking the long view The conventional view of the long-term prospects for the global economy can be summarised as: EMs good, DMs bad. Like most things, however, we suspect that the conventional view is likely to be wrong... 10th December 2018
The Chief Economist's Note The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might... 3rd December 2018
The Chief Economist's Note Picking through the Brexit shambles While US readers were settling in for Thanksgiving dinners, those of us on the other side of the pond were left to pick over the remains of a Brexit deal that looks dead on arrival. Our UK economists... 26th November 2018
The Chief Economist's Note Worrying signs in the latest data Brexit, oil and tech stocks grabbed the headlines last week but it was third quarter GDP data from Germany and Japan that provided the most ominous signs about the outlook for the global economy... 16th November 2018
The Chief Economist's Note Distilling the gloomy news from Europe The recent flow of both news and data from Europe has painted an increasingly gloomy picture and events this week are unlikely to provide much respite, with Italy’s government facing a deadline on... 12th November 2018
The Chief Economist's Note The economics of rising populism Victory for Jair Bolsonaro in last weekend’s presidential election in Brazil has once again led to questions about the links between rising populism and economic growth. This is becoming well-trodden... 5th November 2018
The Chief Economist's Note The economics of Italy’s fiscal tightrope Last week saw a further escalation in the standoff between the EU and Italy, with Brussels taking the unprecedented step of rejecting Rome’s budget plan for 2019. We’ve written about the simmering... 29th October 2018
The Chief Economist's Note The real reason to worry about the US deficit In a week of breathless headlines (Brexit, Italy and Brexit again…) last Monday’s news that the US budget deficit widened to a six-year high of $779bn in the fiscal year ending September 30 th crept... 22nd October 2018
