Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note Rational exuberance – for now We have published several pieces over the past week that shed some light on the thorny question of whether a bubble has inflated in asset markets. You can read the detail here, but several points... 18th January 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Risks to economic recovery this year are all about pandemic fight In my final note of 2020, I made the case for expecting a strong rebound in most economies this year. That inevitably led to questions about what might derail our above-consensus forecasts – and those... 11th January 2021 The Chief Economist's Note What to expect in 2021 Last week we launched a new product: Capital Calls. The idea is to bring together our highest conviction macro calls and, crucially, flesh out their market implications. These will be included as part... 7th December 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Fiscal planning requires clearer thinking The outlook for next year has brightened following the recent news on vaccines, and thoughts are starting to turn to the economic legacy of COVID-19. A key aspect of this relates to the fiscal... 30th November 2020 The Chief Economist's Note COVID’s laggards to begin the long process of catch-up next year The webinars we held last week told a tale of two economies. China was hit early and hard by the virus, but its rebound was swift and it is now the only major economy to have recovered all the output... 23rd November 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Light at the end of the tunnel Events move markets, but some events are more important than others. Forget the fact President Trump has refused to concede defeat in the US election, or that Europe and the US remain gripped by new... 16th November 2020 The Chief Economist's Note The economic consequences of the second lockdown will be different from the first The obvious place to start this week’s note is the US election, but at this stage there’s not much to say that’s not already been said. Our US Update published over the weekend provides an excellent... 9th November 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Fate of the markets lies with the Fed more than the White House In more normal times investors would have spent last week digesting opinion polls and poring over the closing statements from the candidates to be the next US president. Instead, the pandemic remained... 2nd November 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Policymakers must stay the course as recoveries flag Economies still need help amid signs they are struggling to regain pre-virus growth paths Economic rebounds have, until now, been about as V-shaped as we might reasonably have hoped for. But data... 19th October 2020 The Chief Economist's Note The thin edge of the inflationary wedge If prices eventually start rising, debt-laden governments may be tempted to embrace them One of the questions we get asked most frequently is whether the pandemic will usher in a period of higher... 12th October 2020 The Chief Economist's Note What past pandemics can – and can’t – teach about COVID’s economic legacy A few weeks ago, I argued that the pandemic was a good illustration of Keynes’ principle of “ fundamental uncertainty” – an event that radically alters the economic outlook but is impossible to... 5th October 2020 The Chief Economist's Note How COVID-19 has stopped the march of globalisation The focus over the past week has been on the continued rise in infections in Europe, and the economic consequences of new restrictions that have been imposed in several countries, including the UK.... 28th September 2020 The Chief Economist's Note China’s rebound has failed to lift others One important point that gets missed in the debate over the likely shape of the post-virus recovery is that different economies are already rebounding at different speeds. According to the official... 21st September 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Economies after Covid The pandemic’s legacy won’t be found by obsessing over gloomy GDP forecasts In more normal times we would be about to embark on our annual conference tour. This year is a bit different; we will be... 14th September 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Where the Fed leads, others will follow In a few short lines, the Federal Reserve has set the stage for a quiet shift in central banking. For the past thirty years the orthodoxy has been that central banks should focus on controlling... 7th September 2020 The Chief Economist's Note “Fear factor” key in new outbreaks The virus continues to spread in different ways in different countries. The good news is that the spike in infections in the US Sun-Belt states has begun to subside. Infections at a national level... 24th August 2020 Pagination Previous … Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Current page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note Rational exuberance – for now We have published several pieces over the past week that shed some light on the thorny question of whether a bubble has inflated in asset markets. You can read the detail here, but several points... 18th January 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Risks to economic recovery this year are all about pandemic fight In my final note of 2020, I made the case for expecting a strong rebound in most economies this year. That inevitably led to questions about what might derail our above-consensus forecasts – and those... 11th January 2021
The Chief Economist's Note What to expect in 2021 Last week we launched a new product: Capital Calls. The idea is to bring together our highest conviction macro calls and, crucially, flesh out their market implications. These will be included as part... 7th December 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Fiscal planning requires clearer thinking The outlook for next year has brightened following the recent news on vaccines, and thoughts are starting to turn to the economic legacy of COVID-19. A key aspect of this relates to the fiscal... 30th November 2020
The Chief Economist's Note COVID’s laggards to begin the long process of catch-up next year The webinars we held last week told a tale of two economies. China was hit early and hard by the virus, but its rebound was swift and it is now the only major economy to have recovered all the output... 23rd November 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Light at the end of the tunnel Events move markets, but some events are more important than others. Forget the fact President Trump has refused to concede defeat in the US election, or that Europe and the US remain gripped by new... 16th November 2020
The Chief Economist's Note The economic consequences of the second lockdown will be different from the first The obvious place to start this week’s note is the US election, but at this stage there’s not much to say that’s not already been said. Our US Update published over the weekend provides an excellent... 9th November 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Fate of the markets lies with the Fed more than the White House In more normal times investors would have spent last week digesting opinion polls and poring over the closing statements from the candidates to be the next US president. Instead, the pandemic remained... 2nd November 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Policymakers must stay the course as recoveries flag Economies still need help amid signs they are struggling to regain pre-virus growth paths Economic rebounds have, until now, been about as V-shaped as we might reasonably have hoped for. But data... 19th October 2020
The Chief Economist's Note The thin edge of the inflationary wedge If prices eventually start rising, debt-laden governments may be tempted to embrace them One of the questions we get asked most frequently is whether the pandemic will usher in a period of higher... 12th October 2020
The Chief Economist's Note What past pandemics can – and can’t – teach about COVID’s economic legacy A few weeks ago, I argued that the pandemic was a good illustration of Keynes’ principle of “ fundamental uncertainty” – an event that radically alters the economic outlook but is impossible to... 5th October 2020
The Chief Economist's Note How COVID-19 has stopped the march of globalisation The focus over the past week has been on the continued rise in infections in Europe, and the economic consequences of new restrictions that have been imposed in several countries, including the UK.... 28th September 2020
The Chief Economist's Note China’s rebound has failed to lift others One important point that gets missed in the debate over the likely shape of the post-virus recovery is that different economies are already rebounding at different speeds. According to the official... 21st September 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Economies after Covid The pandemic’s legacy won’t be found by obsessing over gloomy GDP forecasts In more normal times we would be about to embark on our annual conference tour. This year is a bit different; we will be... 14th September 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Where the Fed leads, others will follow In a few short lines, the Federal Reserve has set the stage for a quiet shift in central banking. For the past thirty years the orthodoxy has been that central banks should focus on controlling... 7th September 2020
The Chief Economist's Note “Fear factor” key in new outbreaks The virus continues to spread in different ways in different countries. The good news is that the spike in infections in the US Sun-Belt states has begun to subside. Infections at a national level... 24th August 2020
