Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note Global inflation outlook more complicated than polarised debate suggests It sometimes feels as though there is little more to be said about the outlook for inflation, such has been the volume of ink spilt on the subject in recent weeks. However, much of the discussion has... 24th May 2021 The Chief Economist's Note How macroeconomics will drive FX markets coming out of the pandemic Our new FX Markets service, which we launched last week, brings a fresh approach to analysing currency markets by looking at them through a macro lens. Currency markets are notoriously difficult to... 17th May 2021 The Chief Economist's Note As economies reopen, inflation fears are returning – here’s what to watch for The one theme that has dominated conversations with clients over the past few months is inflation and, more specifically, the possibility that it is about to take off. There are several strands to... 10th May 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Tackling climate change doesn’t mean sacrificing economic growth The climate summit hosted by President Biden last month produced a series of ambitious targets for cutting carbon emissions by major economies. This included the US itself, which pledged to halve... 4th May 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Consensus catching on that this time is different It will be years, if not decades, until we fully understand the long-term economic effects of the pandemic. However, mainstream views about the economic legacy of COVID-19 are starting to shift... 26th April 2021 The Chief Economist's Note With push from the pandemic, globalisation era gives way to US-China decoupling We argued some time ago that globalisation had peaked but that the jury was still out on what form a subsequent period of deglobalisation might take. Two years and one pandemic later and it is... 12th April 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Why Europe will fall further behind the US in the post-pandemic recovery Our latest COVID Recovery Monitor reveals a growing divergence between the US economy, which is rebounding, and the euro-zone economy, which is faltering. This is evident in the usual activity data... 29th March 2021 The Chief Economist's Note A commodities supercycle won’t be playing a role in inflation’s return Last week we published our latest Global Inflation Watch. It argued that a strong recovery in global GDP growth this year would be accompanied by a sizeable rebound in global inflation. One of the key... 22nd March 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Global growth narrative set to shift as pre-pandemic legacy issues resurface Two major events have taken place in the world’s two largest economies over the past week. The first is the passage of President Biden’s $1.9trn stimulus bill in the US. The second is the meeting of... 15th March 2021 The Chief Economist's Note If yields keep rising, expect an array of responses from global central banks A sense of foreboding continues to haunt global bond markets. Having dropped back at the start of last week, government bond yields then rose again in the middle of the week and the bond sell-off... 8th March 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Inflation’s revival more likely to be an American than a European story Concerns that one legacy of the pandemic will be a period of higher inflation are starting to spread. According to Eurostat, HICP inflation in the euro-zone jumped from -0.3% in December to +0.9% y/y... 1st March 2021 The Chief Economist's Note US stimulus debate highlights the global risks of diverging fiscal policy paths The past week has seen Joe Biden’s fiscal strategy come under fire from the most unlikely of places: it has caused a high-profile rift between Democrat-aligned US economists, setting the stage for a... 22nd February 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Economic legacy of the pandemic will be different from previous crises Last week we launched a new service: ‘The Long Run’. This looks beyond our normal forecast horizon of one to two years ahead and analyses the issues that will shape economic prospects and financial... 15th February 2021 The Chief Economist's Note The pandemic is distorting everything – including the economic data The pandemic has already forced economic forecasters out of their comfort zone, but the terrain is now getting even more perilous. It is no longer sufficient to make an assumption about “the virus”... 8th February 2021 The Chief Economist's Note An inflation revival won’t look like the 1970s Last week I argued that, although inflation in advanced economies is likely to rebound this year, this should not be mistaken for the start of a new post-pandemic era of higher inflation. However... 1st February 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Beware the inflation head-fake Last week we published our latest Global Economic Outlook. Two themes stand out. The first, as I have discussed before, is that we expect the recovery in global output over the next couple of years to... 25th January 2021 Pagination Previous … Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Current page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note Global inflation outlook more complicated than polarised debate suggests It sometimes feels as though there is little more to be said about the outlook for inflation, such has been the volume of ink spilt on the subject in recent weeks. However, much of the discussion has... 24th May 2021
The Chief Economist's Note How macroeconomics will drive FX markets coming out of the pandemic Our new FX Markets service, which we launched last week, brings a fresh approach to analysing currency markets by looking at them through a macro lens. Currency markets are notoriously difficult to... 17th May 2021
The Chief Economist's Note As economies reopen, inflation fears are returning – here’s what to watch for The one theme that has dominated conversations with clients over the past few months is inflation and, more specifically, the possibility that it is about to take off. There are several strands to... 10th May 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Tackling climate change doesn’t mean sacrificing economic growth The climate summit hosted by President Biden last month produced a series of ambitious targets for cutting carbon emissions by major economies. This included the US itself, which pledged to halve... 4th May 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Consensus catching on that this time is different It will be years, if not decades, until we fully understand the long-term economic effects of the pandemic. However, mainstream views about the economic legacy of COVID-19 are starting to shift... 26th April 2021
The Chief Economist's Note With push from the pandemic, globalisation era gives way to US-China decoupling We argued some time ago that globalisation had peaked but that the jury was still out on what form a subsequent period of deglobalisation might take. Two years and one pandemic later and it is... 12th April 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Why Europe will fall further behind the US in the post-pandemic recovery Our latest COVID Recovery Monitor reveals a growing divergence between the US economy, which is rebounding, and the euro-zone economy, which is faltering. This is evident in the usual activity data... 29th March 2021
The Chief Economist's Note A commodities supercycle won’t be playing a role in inflation’s return Last week we published our latest Global Inflation Watch. It argued that a strong recovery in global GDP growth this year would be accompanied by a sizeable rebound in global inflation. One of the key... 22nd March 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Global growth narrative set to shift as pre-pandemic legacy issues resurface Two major events have taken place in the world’s two largest economies over the past week. The first is the passage of President Biden’s $1.9trn stimulus bill in the US. The second is the meeting of... 15th March 2021
The Chief Economist's Note If yields keep rising, expect an array of responses from global central banks A sense of foreboding continues to haunt global bond markets. Having dropped back at the start of last week, government bond yields then rose again in the middle of the week and the bond sell-off... 8th March 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Inflation’s revival more likely to be an American than a European story Concerns that one legacy of the pandemic will be a period of higher inflation are starting to spread. According to Eurostat, HICP inflation in the euro-zone jumped from -0.3% in December to +0.9% y/y... 1st March 2021
The Chief Economist's Note US stimulus debate highlights the global risks of diverging fiscal policy paths The past week has seen Joe Biden’s fiscal strategy come under fire from the most unlikely of places: it has caused a high-profile rift between Democrat-aligned US economists, setting the stage for a... 22nd February 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Economic legacy of the pandemic will be different from previous crises Last week we launched a new service: ‘The Long Run’. This looks beyond our normal forecast horizon of one to two years ahead and analyses the issues that will shape economic prospects and financial... 15th February 2021
The Chief Economist's Note The pandemic is distorting everything – including the economic data The pandemic has already forced economic forecasters out of their comfort zone, but the terrain is now getting even more perilous. It is no longer sufficient to make an assumption about “the virus”... 8th February 2021
The Chief Economist's Note An inflation revival won’t look like the 1970s Last week I argued that, although inflation in advanced economies is likely to rebound this year, this should not be mistaken for the start of a new post-pandemic era of higher inflation. However... 1st February 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Beware the inflation head-fake Last week we published our latest Global Economic Outlook. Two themes stand out. The first, as I have discussed before, is that we expect the recovery in global output over the next couple of years to... 25th January 2021
