In a week in which the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to deliver further rate cuts, and there’s anticipation that the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress will flesh out the details of much-anticipated fiscal support, one event will dominate: the US election.
With the race seemingly on a knife-edge, the risk of a contested outcome is unusually high. However, by early Wednesday morning we should have some idea of the most likely outcome and the potential scenarios around that. I will be online with senior colleagues to brief clients on the macro and market consequences ahead of New York open on Wednesday morning. Register here for that briefing.
In the meantime, here is a short list of essential reading ahead of the vote:
- Paul Ashworth evaluates the state of the race going into last weekend and explains how our forecasts for the US economy would change in the event of different outcomes up and down the ballot.
- If you prefer your analysis in audio form our latest podcast dissects the implications for the US and global economy. (Incidentally, our podcast has been a huge hit - many thanks to all of you that have rated, reviewed and recommended it. Please keep the feedback coming. For those that don’t already, you can subscribe in all the usual places.)
- Jonas Goltermann explains how different election outcomes are likely to move markets over the coming weeks.
- Our EM team has covered all angles, from the potential consequences for USMCA and Mexico, to the implications for EM central banks, to the view from Beijing.
You can find all our analysis here and, as ever, do drop us a line if you’ve any questions.
Have a great week.