Europe Economics Focus What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Ireland The latest twists in the Brexit saga suggest to us that the UK is most likely to stay in the EU beyond 29th March and leave later in the year with some kind of deal. If so, we think Ireland’s GDP... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Most economies weak at turn of the year The latest figures suggest that Africa’s key economies stumbled in late 2018 and early 2019. Growth in South Africa probably slowed in the final quarter of last year (though it remained strong by... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slump in technology exports to weigh on Asian growth The slump in Asian exports late last year was mainly due to a sharp fall in demand for electronic products, which most likely reflects a turn in the sector’s inventory cycle. The poor prospects for... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) Preliminary Q4 GDP figures from Mexico were better than expected, but showed a sharp slowdown in growth from Q3. We still expect growth to accelerate this year and our forecast for a pick-up to 2.5%... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) The uncertainty around Brexit may have weighed on household borrowing in December. But stronger finances should allow households to continue to spend even if borrowing remains subdued. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Jan.) The further drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in January adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy got off to a slow start to 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) A weak batch of ESIs for January supports our view that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe will slow by more than more expect over the course of 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF & Swedish Econ. Tendency Indicator (Jan.) January’s surveys suggest that growth has slowed sharply in both Switzerland and Sweden. The SNB will see this as supporting its ultra-accommodative policy. But for the Riksbank it creates downside... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to lay groundwork for policy loosening We agree with financial market expectations and the analyst consensus that interest rates will stay on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on 7th February – the first under the stewardship of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The strong rise in December’s retail sales values suggests that private consumption growth in the fourth quarter could slightly exceed our expectations. And as consumers bring forward spending ahead... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Consumers unlikely to spend their gasoline windfall The drop in gasoline prices in recent months is good news for households’ purchasing power, but we doubt they will spend all of their windfall. In fact, limited scope for further strong house price... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth slowing, rates rising GDP growth across Emerging Europe is likely to slow in 2019, and by more than most anticipate. Turkey’s economy will continue to suffer from the effects of last year’s lira crisis, while the slowdown... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Slump in Asian industry drags down EM growth Aggregate EM growth slowed to its weakest pace in two years in the middle of Q4, and more timely data point to further weakness. We expect the slowdown to continue over the course of this year. 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports ringing alarm bells Most recent signs point to a gradual deceleration in China’s economy but the import data are a key exception, showing an abrupt contraction in November and December. While there appear to be several... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
