Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Strength of Nordic activity surveys won’t last Economic growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway looks set to slow next year. In fact, survey evidence in Switzerland suggests that the economy has already shifted down a gear, with the KOF Economic... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2018) Colombian GDP growth edged down from 2.8% y/y in Q2 to 2.7% y/y in Q3, and while the consensus expects growth to be stronger next year, we expect it to slow further in 2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage gains revised away The contraction in Japan’s economy in Q3 should prove short-lived. But the income data released alongside the GDP figures provide a more lasting reason for concern. The Bank of Japan had been able to... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Looking beyond the 0.8% surge in headline retail sales, which was boosted by a price-related rise in gasoline sales, there are signs that underlying spending growth has begun to slow. Even accounting... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chances rise of an “orderly” no deal News that Theresa May could soon face a leadership challenge is the latest twist in the Brexit saga, but even if she survives, the key point is that the chances of her deal being passed by parliament... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s official retail sales figures were weaker than expected. But a continued acceleration in real earnings, if a Brexit deal is signed (which admittedly, is looking less likely by the minute)... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Policy tightening to add headwinds to growth The Bank of Uganda will probably buck the regional trend next year by tightening policy further in response to a widening current account deficit. This will add to headwinds for economic growth. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil price slump won’t cause repeat of 2015 Recent declines in oil prices will not by themselves cause a repeat of the 2015 economic slump. But they are a reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates repeatedly. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Economy probably escaped recession in Q3 September activity data released over the past week has been pretty downbeat. But conditions still seem to have improved in recent months, supporting our view that the economy returned to growth in Q3... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), IP (Sep.) & Employment (Q3) Q3’s slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth partly reflected temporary factors, so we remain optimistic that the economy will perform better in the coming quarters. This would allow the ECB to push ahead... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3) Faster GDP growth in Poland and Hungary reinforces our view that central banks in both countries will begin to tighten monetary policy over the coming quarters. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) The 0.2% quarterly fall in German GDP in Q3 partly reflected temporary factors, but will still serve as a warning to the ECB to bide its time before communicating any policy normalisation. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October activity and spending data were mostly better than anticipated. But despite an uptick in industrial output and investment, we doubt that economic growth has bottomed out just yet. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The slump in output in the third quarter probably reflects a number of natural disasters and the economy almost certainly returned to growth in Q4. Indeed, the near-term outlook is positive as... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus A brief overview of 700 years of economic downturns The causes of economic downturns have changed over time, from harvest failures and wars, to monetary policy, oil shocks and financial crises. Looking ahead, we think the next major global downturn... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read