Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s optimism faces reality check The RBA will probably continue to signal that the next move in rates is up at Tuesday’s meeting. But with mounting signs that the housing downturn is spreading to other parts of the economy and price... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Universal Basic Income is worthy but unfeasible The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention again this week. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The slump in the Caixin manufacturing PMI reading in January to its lowest since February 2016 paints a much bleaker picture than the official PMI reading released yesterday. With the headwinds from... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices have now fallen 7.6% from their peak and the pace of declines in recent months leads us to believe prices may now fall 15% from peak to trough. We believe such a large downturn would... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Italy in recession? The recession in Italy last year appears to have been due to a combination of (temporary) disruption in the car sector and a (perhaps less temporary) decline in confidence among consumers and firms... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political turmoil puts debt burdens under the spotlight Frontier dollar bonds have rallied this month, due partly to improved risk appetite, but also progress on IMF deals (Ukraine and Sri Lanka) and the political news flow (Venezuela and Lebanon). But it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November’s fall in GDP appears to have been followed by further weakness in December and January. With economic growth set to slow sharply this year, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to follow through... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: oil output cuts to cause fresh slowdown Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy gathered pace towards the end of last year, recording growth of as much as 5% y/y. But oil output cuts, combined with a tightening of fiscal policy in... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Further evidence of a Q4 slowdown Data released over the past month suggest that regional GDP growth slowed from to 2.4% y/y in Q3 to a two-year low of 1.2% y/y in Q4. This was due mostly to the economic slump in Turkey, where... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & Unemployment (Dec.) Q4’s GDP growth rate of 0.2% will do nothing to reassure policymakers about the outlook for this year. We think growth will be only around 1.0% in 2019, and even this would require a slight pick-up... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4 Advanced) GDP growth in Taiwan slowed last quarter in y/y terms to the weakest pace since 2016 on the back of cooling investment. Although domestic demand should remain relatively healthy, with headwinds to the... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2018 GDP, which showed an expansion of 5.1% over the year as a whole, suggests that the economy slowed in Q4. Inventories appear to have exerted a sizeable... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) While GfK/NOP consumer confidence held steady in January, it did so at a five-year low of -14, and the bigger picture is that consumers remain downbeat despite a fairly healthy economic backdrop. That... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? Slower growth in China won’t immediately restrain Australia’s exports. But by lowering commodity prices, it makes investment in new mining projects less profitable and means that the mining investment... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) While the official manufacturing PMI didn’t weaken any further in January, it still suggests that the economy lost momentum at the start of the year. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The jump in industrial production in the fourth quarter points to a strong rebound in GDP. But the worsening of the business surveys suggests that a renewed slowdown at the start of this year is... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
