Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2018) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 1.3% y/y, appears to have been driven by broad-based weakness across the economy. But the early signs are that growth will recover in Q4, and we still... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weaker lira softening the blow The sharp fall in the Turkish lira since the start of the year has pushed up inflation and caused financial conditions to tighten markedly, tipping the economy into recession. But there are signs that... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real income recovery to spur spending In our base case, which is predicated on a Brexit deal being secured and the UK entering into a status quo transition period, a further rise in real earnings should spur a recovery in consumer... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s economy to slow in 2019 Norway’s economic slowdown in Q3 reflected temporary factors. But growth still looks set to weaken next year as oil prices fall. So we expect the krone to weaken and the equity market to underperform. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections a test of BJP’s popularity Upcoming state elections in India will, as ever, have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. They will also go some way to determining whether the ruling BJP will be able to gain... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Labor’s fiscal plans would strengthen case for low rates We estimate that Labor’s plans to tighten fiscal policy would dampen consumer spending by around 0.3 percentage points in both 2019 and 2020, shaving 0.2 percentage points off GDP in each of those... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will housing drag the economy under again? The housing market is unlikely to cause another crisis as it did in 2007. But the slowdown in housing activity is a clear sign that the Fed’s interest rate hikes are starting to take their toll on the... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s push for oil output cuts Saudi Arabia’s push for a fresh round of oil output cuts isn’t a done deal and a sustained unilateral cut is unlikely. Even so, it adds to the evidence of a more erratic approach to oil policy under... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower global growth won’t stop UK rebound Concern that increasing Brexit uncertainty is causing the economy to slow sharply, as indicated by the slide in the PMI survey, look overdone. Indeed, other indicators are less downbeat. And while... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth slowing again, Brexit backstop bickering We don’t find the apparent slowdown in economic growth at the start of Q4 too worrying. After all, growth was always likely to ease as the boost to the retail sector from hot weather and the football... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy-EU tensions set to intensify Tensions between Italy and the EU are likely to escalate next week. Indeed, the Government has until Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget, and despite coming under pressure from European policymakers... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) The larger-than-expected gain in Mexican industrial production in September chimes with the strong preliminary GDP data for Q3 released late last month, and supports our view that economic growth as a... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q3 bright spots fade, better lies ahead The past week’s data cast a shadow over some of the few remaining bright spots in Q3. Next week’s GDP release is very likely to show that Japan’s economy contracted for a second time this year... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional growth slows further, inflation rises GDP data to be released next week are likely to confirm that growth across Emerging Europe continued to weaken in Q3. Meanwhile, figures published this week showed that inflation picked up in most of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has a weaker ruble helped Russia’s economy? There’s little evidence so far to suggest that the fall in the ruble this year has boosted Russia’s economy, but we think the positive effects will begin to materialise in 2019. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read