Global Economics Update US growth to slow even if Fed has stopped tightening Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Early signs point to weak start to 2019 The first raft of South African data suggest that growth remained soft going into this year. But we think that growth will pick up later this year as inflation eases and confidence returns. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rates hikes in Iceland looking less likely The Central Bank of Iceland had hinted only a few weeks ago that interest rate hikes were likely at the start of this year, but the recent economic data have been weak enough for it to hold fire today... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Official figures show GDP growth in Indonesia was unchanged at 5.2% y/y in the final quarter of the year, but with exports set to slow and monetary policy likely to be tightened further, we think... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s new-found dovishness won’t prevent slowdown Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada too optimistic on wage growth With wages boosted last year by minimum wage hikes and the labour market now facing several headwinds, we doubt that a meaningful pick-up in wage growth is on the cards for 2019. 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jan.) The headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in January suggests that the slowdown which began in Q4 worsened at the start of Q1. And worries about future demand now appear to be seeping into... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) Retail sales figures for December were no worse than expected, and upward revisions to the data for October and November show that sales actually rose by 0.6% in Q4 as a whole. However, the final PMIs... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs point to stronger growth in the Gulf but we doubt that this will last as oil prices drop back and fiscal consolidation resumes. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in Egypt continued to... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates in 2019 as reality bites Although the RBA took a more dovish tone when it left rates on hold today we think it will need to consider cutting rates before long as the economic outlook deteriorates. While the RBA still sees... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Dec.) Household spending appears to easing and will probably continue to do so as the outlook deteriorates in 2019. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tighter lending standards point to further slowdown The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests the slowdown in business equipment investment and rate-sensitive consumer spending growth will worsen in the coming months. Loan demand has... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2018) The stronger-than-expected Russian 2018 GDP growth figure of 2.3% suggests that Rosstat has made significant upwards revisions to the quarterly growth figures for the first half of last year. Based on... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer spending to pick up in Germany The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German household spending to pick up The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
