Europe Data Response EZ Q3 GDP (Prelim. Flash) & EC Survey (Oct.) While the 0.2% expansion in the euro-zone economy was disappointing, it probably in part reflects temporary factors. As a result, we expect there to be some recovery in the coming quarters. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Budget plans put focus on weak fiscal positions Policymakers in South Africa and Nigeria both laid out fiscal plans this month, but their responses to weak revenues were very different. South Africa’s new finance minister announced a wider deficit... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) Our weighted average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell to an 11-month low in October, suggesting that GDP growth across the region continued to slow at the... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Hammond splashes the cash As expected, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave the Chancellor a helping hand in the Autumn Budget, allowing him to deliver a number of expensive spending pledges, while still managing to... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi to break through 7.0 before long The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have stepped up intervention recently to support the renminbi as it has approached 7.0 to the US dollar. Many are talking about that line as a psychological... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could EMs cause the next crash? Classic EM crises have caused waves, but have rarely triggered global downturns. And in any case the current risk of a 1980s-style EM crisis is low. The bigger risk is of a China ‘hard landing’ which... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to lead to another fiscal stimulus With the Democrats likely to win control of the House, while the Republicans maintain a slim majority in the Senate, the chances of another fiscal stimulus being agreed after the midterm elections... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could EMs cause the next crash? Classic EM crises have caused waves, but have rarely triggered global downturns. And in any case the current risk of a 1980s-style EM crisis is low. The bigger risk is of a China ‘hard landing’ which... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers are becoming more wary about loading up on unsecured debt. But households remain upbeat about their financial position so... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down, more weakness on the horizon Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged down last month and shows a more pronounced slowdown over the past year than the official GDP figures. We anticipate further weakness ahead as... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update House prices falls will weigh on consumer spending Households responded to rising house prices by lifting spending and we think they will eventually respond to falling prices with lower spending. This wealth effect may lower annual GDP growth by 0.3... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The drop in retail sales in September suggests that consumer spending fell yet again in Q3. That’s one reason why we expect GDP to contract in Q3. 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost; Amlo, energy and populism The growing optimism in Brazil’s markets about a likely victory for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election this Sunday is increasingly difficult to square with events on the ground. In Mexico... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier external risks still a big concern A handful of the more vulnerable Frontier Markets, including Ukraine, Pakistan and Bahrain, have received (or are close to getting) IMF or bilateral funding, but external risks remain a key concern... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB unfazed by weak surveys, Italy in the spotlight Euro-zone surveys published this week painted a pretty gloomy picture of the economy at the start of Q4. Some of that weakness probably reflected temporary factors and the ECB didn’t appear to be too... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shifting policy mix means it’s all downhill from here The recent slump in stock markets is hard to square with the 3.5% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP that follows an even more impressive 4.2% rise in the second. Looking at the details of that... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read