India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Middle-income squeeze weighing on consumption On paper, China’s rebalancing is going swimmingly, with the consumption share of GDP growth jumping last year to its highest level in almost two decades. But this is hard to square with broader data... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit clouds the outlook for consumers The slump in retail sales volumes in December is not too worrying given that it seems to have largely reflected consumers bringing forward Christmas purchases in order to take advantage of ‘Black... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Growth will pick up, despite faltering Nigeria After a very weak 2018, we expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen this year. The major oil exporters will, of course, suffer the effects of lower oil prices and our growth forecasts... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run We have long thought that the world economy would slow significantly in 2019, but the Flash PMIs for January provide an early sign that growth may be deteriorating more quickly than even we had... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is behind the global slowdown? On the face of it, the slowdowns currently seen in many countries appear attributable to a range of country-specific factors. But could we be missing the wood for the trees? Although there is little... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack End-2018 total returns soften to 7.5% y/y Indicators suggest that UK economic growth slowed towards the end of 2018, in part due to households and businesses delaying spending in response to Brexit-related uncertainty. This is likely to... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The further fall in the Composite PMI for the euro-zone in January will not prompt the ECB to change its statement this afternoon. But it will heighten concerns about the severity of the slowdown and... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Combined with the recent fall in Reuters’ manufacturing Tankan, the slump in the manufacturing PMI in January suggests that the growth outlook for Japan has deteriorated. While we still expect... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) GDP growth in the Philippines was virtually unchanged in Q4 and we expect it to settle at around 6.0% in 2019, falling short of both government targets and the consensus view. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Demographic headwinds building China’s working age population is currently falling by around 0.2% per year and in 2018 employment contracted for the first time in the reform era. These developments aren’t a surprise but the... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone slowdown due to more than just exports The slowdown in the euro-zone economy last year was driven partly by a decline in export growth and partly by weakening household consumption growth. This year, we suspect that consumption growth will... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) Although November’s fall in retail sales partly reflected lower gasoline prices, sales still fell in volume terms. Indeed, sales volumes appear to have contracted for the second quarter running last... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Impact of China's slowdown on the global economy China’s slowdown looks set to be of a similar scale to that in 2015/16. In terms of imbalances and financial market vulnerability, the world now looks better placed to withstand it. But against a... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chinese slowdown one of many reasons for concern China’s slowdown looks set to be of a similar scale to that in 2015/16. In terms of imbalances and financial market vulnerability, the world now looks better placed to withstand it. But against a... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
