Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The slight rise in Turkish inflation in January was driven by higher food inflation but even so, coupled with the hawkish tone of the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, it probably means that... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Shifting down a gear Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for January add to evidence that the world economy is in the midst of a considerable slowdown and that the risk of a euro-zone recession is rising. The US remains a... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in January provides further reassurance that economic growth has remained solid at the beginning of 2019. We still expect a combination of weaker global... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela’s lessons from history, Vale impact Venezuelan dollar bonds have continued to rally this week on hopes of a swift political transition, debt restructuring and economic overhaul, but history suggests that this could prove optimistic... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys point to contagion from euro-zone weakness Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, released on Friday, dropped sharply in January, suggesting that the recent weakness in the euro-zone is spilling over to its neighbours. Next... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q4 rebound, immigration boost The final few releases of December spending and output data have provided reassurance that Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4. But the early signs for the current quarter are not at all... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) Even though Brazilian industrial production rose by a slightly better-than-expected 0.2% m/m in December, the sector was a drag on growth over Q4 as a whole. The services sector seemed to fare a bit... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The developing global slowdown has caused the UK manufacturing sector to weaken despite evidence that activity is being supported by some stockbuilding ahead of Brexit. The upshot is that there is... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan rates will remain on hold, but cuts elsewhere Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate unchanged this week, and we think that they will hold rates over the remainder of the year. Peers in Angola and Ghana – who cut this week – will probably... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Manufacturing PMIs in South Africa and Nigeria both pointed to weak growth in January. Forward-looking measures, however, support our view that growth in South Africa will pick up later this year. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Another soft batch of PMI data from Central Europe suggests that the continued weakness of euro-zone industry is weighing heavily on the region’s export-led manufacturing sectors. On past form, the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The January PMIs for Emerging Asia make for grim reading, with the headline number falling across the region. Meanwhile, the weakness in the new export orders component and a further slowdown in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped in January, defying the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
