China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The latest survey data suggest that conditions in industry remained broadly stable last month. But we still think that growth will slow during the next few quarters, even though the immediate threat... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum in the middle of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) We suspect the decline in house prices in the eight capital cities is going to continue and house prices will go on to eventually fall by at least 12%. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus turns to Bank of Canada This week’s media coverage painted far too positive a picture of foreign direct investment in Canada, which remains lower than a year ago and after the recent slump in oil prices is likely to... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit polarises the outlook for interest rates The Bank of England’s harrowing assessment of the consequences of a “no deal ” Brexit grabbed the headlines this week. But it was designed to be an extreme scenario, and based on some implausible... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy rebounding, government details tax offsets This week brought reassurance that the contraction in the economy in Q3 was largely due to one-off factors. The early signs are that there has been a strong rebound this quarter. In the week ahead... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Weak Q3 data bode ill for Switzerland and Sweden Data released this week which showed that Swiss GDP contracted in Q3 support our view that the SNB will keep interest rates on hold longer than investors currently expect. Meanwhile, other data showed... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2018) The economy’s third-quarter performance was weaker than the headline GDP gain of 2.0% annualised suggests. Consumer spending growth slowed sharply, while investment contracted for the second quarter... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign debt worries in the spotlight Frontier market dollar debt markets have been rattled in recent months. Part of this is due to the fall in oil prices, which helps to explain the widening of spreads in Venezuela and Nigeria. But that... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Indian GDP growth slowed in Q3 but remained strong by recent standards. The economy should continue to expand rapidly over the coming months, supported by looser fiscal policy ahead of next year’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The second estimate of Italy’s GDP in Q3 showed that the economy performed even worse than previously thought. And while we know that temporary disruption in the car industry weighed on the economy in... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2018) The robust 0.8% q/q expansion in Brazilian GDP in Q3 was flattered by the recovery from disruptions caused by the truck drivers’ strike in May. That said, the improvement in the latest survey data... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The weak tone of GfK/NOP’s Consumer Confidence Survey in November suggests that Brexit uncertainty is starting to weigh more heavily on confidence, which sets the stage for slightly weaker consumer... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Nov.), Finnish & Danish GDP (Q3) November’s fall in the KOF Economic Barometer adds to the evidence that Swiss growth has shifted down a gear. And with inflation weak, we expect the SNB to keep policy ultra-loose until at least 2020. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Nov.) Downbeat official PMI readings for November suggest that growth remains under pressure, with signs that the recent uptick in construction activity is fizzling out as local governments pare back... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Tokyo CPI (Nov.) The surge in industrial production in October is a strong sign that the economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter. That suggests that October’s weakening in the labour market data won’t be... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read