China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The unofficial PMI rebounded last month, after slumping in January. Looking through this volatility, the survey data remain consistent with our expectation for a further slowdown in economic growth in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Limited economic and market fallout from Kashmir Developments in Kashmir this week have left tensions between the Indian and Pakistani government at their most fraught in years, but the economic and market impact of the crisis is likely to be small. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Deleveraging delusions, market exuberance Policymakers are already billing the deleveraging campaign a success. But we doubt that the recent stabilisation of the debt ratio will prove durable. Meanwhile, Chinese equity prices have jumped... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices in the eight capital cities have now fallen 8.9% from their peak making the current downturn the largest in Australia’s modern history, and we expect prices to fall by at least another 6%... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) & Capital Spending (Q4) The unemployment rate edged up in January and with GDP growth set to remain soft, we think it will creep higher next year. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth edged up from 2.7% y/y in Q3 to 2.8% y/y in Q4, but while the consensus expects growth to be stronger this year, we expect it to slow. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP increased by 2.9% last year, up from 2.2% in 2017, but that acceleration is no surprise given the size of the fiscal stimulus introduced early last year. As the stimulus fades and the lagged... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Indian GDP data show that although the economy slowed in the final quarter of last year, it is still continuing to grow at a decent pace. The economy should perform relatively well in the first half... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The meagre 0.1% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 confirmed that, despite the surge in business and consumer confidence, there has been no Bolsonaro boost for the real economy yet. This supports our... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland GDP (Q4) Q4 GDP data released this morning show that large parts of the region ended 2018 on a high note. However, more timely indicators suggest that activity has lost momentum into 2019. Against a backdrop... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The small rise GfK/NOP’s headline measure of consumer confidence in February leaves it only a touch above January’s five-year low, despite a healthy economic backdrop for consumers. As a result... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Feb.) The latest survey data suggest that manufacturing output growth slowed last month, possibly to its weakest level since 2009. Construction activity also appears to have softened, raising questions over... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q4) While the private capital expenditure survey showed a rise in capital spending in Q4, we think that private investment spending actually fell. And given the recent deterioration in business confidence... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The sharp falls in industrial production and retail sales in January suggest that the economy slowed sharply at the start of 2019. And the deterioration in business confidence means that a rapid... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
