Global Economics Update Euro-zone/US divergence to narrow as US slows The recent contrast between a weakening euro-zone and resilient US seems to reflect the former’s higher exposure to world trade and the relative weakness of real disposable incomes growth there. We... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) & Producer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected plunge in control group retail sales in December means that fourth-quarter GDP growth was probably nearer 2.5% annualised than the 3.1% we had pencilled in and, more worryingly, it also... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) The unexpected slump in manufacturing sales in December was principally due to continued problems in petroleum refining, but the weakness extended well beyond that sector and suggests that Canada did... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Assessing regional “bellwethers” In this Focus, we assess how effective various indicators are for tracking economic growth in the region. The trade volume figures and our proprietary GDP Trackers provide the best guide to the state... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Leading indicators not (yet) pointing to recession Recent movements in most of the indicators which signalled the only two recessions in the euro-zone’s history suggest that the economic outlook has deteriorated sharply. They do not yet point... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) With Germany avoiding recession only by the skin of its teeth, and Italy actually in recession, the euro-zone eked out GDP growth of only 0.2% in Q4. For now we still expect growth to recover a bit... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data suggest soft end to 2018 December’s activity data supported our view that growth probably stabilised at about 1% q/q saar in Q4. Despite growing worries about power cuts, we expect that growth will pick up in 2019. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2018) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that growth in the region held up pretty well at the end of last year – especially considering the ongoing weakness in Germany. Even so, growth still... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Dec.) The bigger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in December adds to the evidence that the economy performed terribly in the final quarter of last year. We think that GDP may have... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) The rise in GDP growth to 4.7% y/y in Q4, from 4.4% in Q3, was the first pick-up in five quarters, but we think that there is little chance of a sustained rebound. Softer external demand coupled with... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4) Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4 but its performance over the past year has been poor. Domestic demand will get a lift ahead of October’s sales tax hike but that sugar-high won’t be sustained. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM slowdown to be broad-based The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs facing synchronised downturn The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cracks appearing in the foundations of labour market Until recently the labour market had seemed to be immune to the Brexit uncertainty which has hampered other sectors of the economy, but there are signs that Brexit is now starting to affect the labour... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s 0.9% fall in industrial production confirms that there was a broad-based slowdown in the euro-zone at the end of last year, which was not due to problems in just one or two sectors or... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gets more realistic by taking a neutral stance We think the explicit neutral stance adopted by the RBNZ in today’s policy meeting is appropriate as we suspect that the economy will not gain enough momentum to support interest rate hikes until 2021... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
