Latin America Economics Update Amlo: five things that would signal further populist shift Having struck a business-friendly tone after his election, Mexico’s president elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has more recently begun to unnerve investors. Ahead of his inauguration on Saturday... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices batter key economies The recent sharp fall in oil prices will add to headwinds facing the economies of Nigeria and Angola. We estimate that both country’s export revenues will have fallen by about a US$1bn over the past... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slowed in Q3, but stabilising in Q4 Aggregate EM economic growth slowed to its weakest rate in over a year in Q3, but the data for October provide early signs that growth has started to stabilise in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Annual consumer credit growth continued to slow in October, reaching a three-year low, providing further evidence that consumers’ appetite for unsecured debt is waning a little. But so long as a... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling consumer confidence not as bad as it looks The recent fall in euro-zone consumer confidence has reflected a decline in optimism about the general economic outlook, which may well continue. But this need not imply that a slowdown in spending... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Taking the Long View: Africa in 2040 African economies will probably remain among the fastest-growing in the world over the coming decades. But slow productivity growth will prevent convergence with high income countries. Indeed, we... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s modest decline in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) left it consistent with solid GDP growth which will encourage the ECB to end its asset purchases next month as... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Swiss GDP (Q3) The very weak Swiss Q3 GDP data make us more confident that the SNB will keep monetary policy ultra-loose longer than investors expect. Meanwhile, the contraction in the Swedish economy in Q3 suggests... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) Our weighted average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) rose in November, suggesting that regional growth remained at around 4.5% y/y in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GDP revisions underline recent strength The revised GDP data for the past decade that have just been released suggest that recent growth has been further above India’s sustainable rate than previously thought. This underlines why the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The fall in private capital expenditure wasn’t as bad as the headline suggests but a slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter will be hard to avoid. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The rebound in consumer spending in October suggests that private consumption returned to growth in the fourth quarter. That means that the contraction in GDP in the third quarter was just a blip. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices a net positive for most of Lat Am The drop in oil prices this month is clearly bad news for the region’s large net energy exporters, Colombia and Venezuela; a fiscal squeeze in on the cards in the former and the latter’s crisis will... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch housing boom near its peak The housing boom that has been one of the prime drivers of Dutch economic growth in recent years is likely to be close to its peak. As a result, growth is likely to slow in the coming years. But we do... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read