UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The larger-than-expected monthly increase in GDP of 0.5% in January (consensus 0.2%) is a reassuring sign that, up until January at least, the UK economy was weathering the political crisis at home... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economic growth still lacklustre Economic activity in the euro-zone seems to have remained sluggish in the first quarter of this year: we think GDP growth will be only 0.2% for a third successive quarter. This is largely due to... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 1.1% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in January provides some reassurance that consumer spending isn’t falling off a cliff. But with sales now estimated to have plunged by an even... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s decline in industrial production adds to the evidence that the economy made a weak start to 2019. And timelier indicators suggest that output is unlikely to increase strongly in the coming... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy formally entered into recession in the final quarter of last year and, while the worst of the downturn may now have passed, the weak carryover means that we expect GDP to decline... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Interest rates to be lower for longer The more dovish stance adopted by the ECB at its monetary policy meeting this week suggests that the upside risks to Nordic and Swiss currencies – particularly the franc – will intensify. Indeed, if... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak growth here to stay The RBA appears to be confident that the labour market will continue to support growth. But this week’s disappointing GDP data suggests that the economic outlook will remain subdued for some time. If... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly On contradictions (from the NPC) There is a tension between the policy stimulus announced this week at the National People’s Congress and the government’s goal of keeping the debt ratio stable. Ultimately, we expect officials to err... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2018, breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 last year confirmed that the economy grew at only a moderate pace, and with the latest data fairly weak the ECB is certain to announce lower forecasts later... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stockpiling to help Q1 GDP growth, but not by much There is increasing survey evidence that businesses are stockpiling significant amounts of goods ahead of Brexit, which will probably provide some support to economic growth in Q1. But given that a... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy’s strong end to 2018 already fading Saudi Arabia’s economy appears to have expanded by around 4.5% y/y in Q4 of last year, but it is now almost certainly slowing. Our forecast for GDP growth of 1.3% this year lies towards the bottom of... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Weathering the storm With 23 days to go until the UK leaves the EU and no resolution in sight, we appear to have reached one of the most intense phases of Brexit uncertainty. However, the latest figures have been a bit... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q4) Subdued GDP growth in final quarter of 2018 sets the tone for softer growth this year. And given that the RBA has already adopted a neutral stance, we now suspect it may cut rates as soon as August. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recession likely to drag on Italy’s economy is unlikely to come out of recession in the first half of this year. Several temporary factors might lead to a small expansion in the second half of the year, but even if this happens... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
