UK Economics Update Our new forecasts in full This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s data show that euro-zone retail sales were coming off the boil even before many non-essential retailers were forced to shut up shop. Online spending will probably pick up again, but by... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q3 2020) The 4.3% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q3 was below both our and the consensus forecast, but leaves the economy on track for a comparatively shallow drop in output this year – broadly in line with... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion Back in June, we predicted that the Bank of England would expand quantitative easing (QE) by a further £350bn over the following 18 months (consensus £100bn). By announcing an extra £150bn of QE today... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) The y/y contraction in Indonesian GDP eased in Q3, and the economy is likely to experience a slow recovery over the coming quarters. 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone flat-lined in October. But with countries throughout the region entering new lockdowns or substantially tightening restrictions... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The rise in the October PMIs suggests that the economy has been rebounding a little faster than we had thought. However, there are still plenty of headwinds to the recovery. 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The strong rebound in retail sales in Q3 was probably matched by a rebound in services consumption and has further to run as Victoria reopens. 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fresh lockdown will cause new contraction We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of... 3rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 3rd November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole We estimate that the second England-wide lockdown will cause GDP to fall by around 8% m/m in November, prompt the unemployment rate to climb to a peak of 9% next year, contrib`ute to the government... 3rd November 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The positive set of manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that the industrial rebound gathered momentum at the beginning of Q4. However, this is of little comfort given the imposition of new... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI to its highest reading in over a decade in October suggests that the recovery has been stronger than we had anticipated. But given the damage to corporate balance... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
