Europe Economics Update Revising up our euro-zone Q2 GDP forecast The slump in euro-zone GDP in March and April was just as large as we had feared, but the subsequent recovery has been quicker than we expected. As a result, we now think that GDP probably contracted... 7th July 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s increase in German industrial production left it still well below pre-crisis levels. But with retail sales rising more rapidly, overall economic activity is picking up a little more quickly than... 7th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wage growth weakened further in May, but we think household incomes are recovering as furloughed workers either return to work or receive their mandatory leave allowance. 7th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the recovery in Latin America The latest surveys and high-frequency data suggest that Latin America’s economic recovery finally started to firm up in June. But it is still lagging other EM regions – and Chile’s recovery is yet to... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Shift to online spending should outlast virus impact Online sales surged during the lockdown and rose further even as the Australian and New Zealand economies were opening up again. We suspect online sales will remain high which means measures of... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Auto slowdown in Thailand, Singapore bouncing back Despite having successfully contained the virus, which has allowed daily life in Thailand to return to normal quicker than in other parts of the region, the country is still set to be one of the worst... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Renewed spike in virus cases to prevent full recovery The May activity data were consistent with our below-consensus forecast of a 9% q/q drop in Q2 GDP. Consumption should rebound more forcefully over the coming months as households receive cash... 3rd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Renewed outbreaks will slow recovery in activity A fresh outbreak in Victoria has brought weekly cases close to their previous peak. That resulted in many Victorians being placed back into lockdown and caused panic buying of essentials to restart... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The rebound in June’s services and composite PMIs suggests the economy is now on the long road to normality. But the recovery will be slow and fitful. 3rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose above pre-virus levels in May and probably kept rising in June. As such, a sharp rebound in consumption in Q3 following Q2’s slump is all but guaranteed. However, services spending... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) Brazil’s industrial sector only recovered a small share of its coronavirus-related losses in May, with continued weakness the auto sector one key factor. While surveys suggest that the data for June... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (May) The trade balance was broadly stable in May but given significant price effects, trade may have been another drag on GDP growth in Q2. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun. 2020) The rise in the manufacturing PMIs in June provide further signs that economic output recovered strongly at the end of Q2 as lockdown measures were lifted. While we would caution that the PMIs may... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Despite remaining below 50, the rise in June’s manufacturing PMI reading suggests to us that activity has picked up further as containment measures have been scaled back. However, the lasting damage... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
