UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The small rise in CPI inflation from +0.5% in May to +0.6% in June probably won’t be sustained for long as the effects of the Chancellor’s VAT cut for the hospitality/tourism sectors and the “Eat Out... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: US recovery loses pace; euro-zone powers on In general, our Covid Recovery Trackers continued to improve at the end of Q2 and in the first ten days of July. Things are even looking up a bit in Latin America. But the US recovery risks going into... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The double-digit increase in industrial production in May was a little short of expectations. Output should increase further in June but will remain significantly below pre-crisis levels throughout... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2, Advanced) Singapore’s economy contracted by the most on record in Q2, but with many restrictions to economic activity now lifted and strong government support, output is set to rebound over the second half of... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Does GDP usually revert to trend after downturns? On the face of it, history doesn’t offer much reassurance that the world economy will be able to return to the path it would have been on had it not been for COVID-19. Indeed, looking back at all the... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery will be slow and protracted The slump in industrial production eased in May, confirming that the recovery in industry is now underway. But given the likelihood of a renewed tightening in containment measures and the substantial... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The further fall in Mexico’s industrial production in May reinforces our view that GDP suffered a double-digit slump in Q2 (in q/q terms), and suggests that the recovery is lagging those in the rest... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble Chinese equites surged this week, after state media talked up the value of a stock market rally in countering economic headwinds. Output may benefit in the short-run – at its peak the 2015 rally was... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diriyah Gate, UAE banks, migrant workers in the Gulf The construction of the new Diriyah Gate tourist development in Saudi Arabia started in the past couple of weeks, but the plan raises concerns that the authorities are repeating their past mistakes... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Recovery underway as Singapore heads to the polls The main priority for Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), which is certain to win tomorrow’s general election, is ensuring a strong recovery from the crisis. There are good reasons to... 9th July 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Are we worrying too much? In the week that India overtook Russia to become the third-worst affected country by the pandemic, it has been argued that measuring virus cases relative to population size would give a better... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Victoria’s lockdown will slow recovery Melbourne's six-week lockdown will of course prevent a noticeable rebound in economic activity in Victoria in the third quarter. Cases elsewhere remain low and the closure of the border between New... 9th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) The slight rise in machinery orders in May suggests that non-residential investment may have slumped a little less than we were anticipating in Q2. However, with business sentiment remaining weak, we... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the tourist slump Borders are slowly re-opening across Emerging Europe, but international tourists are unlikely to return to the region in significant numbers for the key summer season. Romania and Russia are the least... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising up our annual growth forecasts The post-lockdown rebound has been quicker than we anticipated, so we are revising up our euro-zone GDP forecast from -12% to -7% for 2020. That does not alter our view that the economy will remain... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising up our euro-zone Q2 GDP forecast The slump in euro-zone GDP in March and April was just as large as we had feared, but the subsequent recovery has been quicker than we expected. As a result, we now think that GDP probably contracted... 7th July 2020 · 4 mins read
