Japan Economics Weekly Rebound continues, winter third wave? The surge in car sales last month brought further evidence that the economy has continued to rebound over the autumn months. Admittedly, a recent spike in coronavirus cases in Hokkaido – which proved... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Sep.) Wage growth improved in September and should recover further over the coming months as overtime hours continue to rebound – besides a hit from a fall in end-of-year bonus payments. Meanwhile, the rise... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Our new forecasts in full This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s data show that euro-zone retail sales were coming off the boil even before many non-essential retailers were forced to shut up shop. Online spending will probably pick up again, but by... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q3 2020) The 4.3% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q3 was below both our and the consensus forecast, but leaves the economy on track for a comparatively shallow drop in output this year – broadly in line with... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion Back in June, we predicted that the Bank of England would expand quantitative easing (QE) by a further £350bn over the following 18 months (consensus £100bn). By announcing an extra £150bn of QE today... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) The y/y contraction in Indonesian GDP eased in Q3, and the economy is likely to experience a slow recovery over the coming quarters. 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone flat-lined in October. But with countries throughout the region entering new lockdowns or substantially tightening restrictions... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The rise in the October PMIs suggests that the economy has been rebounding a little faster than we had thought. However, there are still plenty of headwinds to the recovery. 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The strong rebound in retail sales in Q3 was probably matched by a rebound in services consumption and has further to run as Victoria reopens. 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fresh lockdown will cause new contraction We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of... 3rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 3rd November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole We estimate that the second England-wide lockdown will cause GDP to fall by around 8% m/m in November, prompt the unemployment rate to climb to a peak of 9% next year, contrib`ute to the government... 3rd November 2020 · 7 mins read
