Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The positive set of manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that the industrial rebound gathered momentum at the beginning of Q4. However, this is of little comfort given the imposition of new... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI to its highest reading in over a decade in October suggests that the recovery has been stronger than we had anticipated. But given the damage to corporate balance... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI points to an acceleration in manufacturing activity in October. Admittedly, the official survey released on Saturday pointed to a marginal slowdown. But taken together... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing conditions improved further in October, and strong global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector over the coming months. 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 1.2% m/m rise in GDP in August and the preliminary estimate of a 0.7% gain in September confirm that the initial recovery has been stronger than first anticipated. The latest restrictions will... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), HICP (Oct.), Unemp. (Sep.) The post-lockdown rebound in euro-zone GDP was stronger than anticipated, which provides some hope that eventually things may get back to normal more rapidly than feared. But in the meantime, the... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy expanded for the first time in over a year last quarter, thanks to fiscal stimulus and stronger foreign demand. Output is still well below its previous peak due to the double blow... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plenum readout heavy on ambition, light on detail The Fifth Plenum, held in Beijing to discuss the government’s 14 th Five-Year Plan and long-run goals, concluded yesterday. In its post-meeting communique, the leadership laid out ambitious plans to... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q3 2020) The massive increase in GDP in Q3 is of no comfort to French policymakers or households, who are now contending with a second national lockdown. Indeed, we expect GDP to fall by 2.5% q/q or so in Q4. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Activity rebounding, fiscal stimulus set to disappoint The September activity data showed another strong rise in industrial production and support our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts. As such, it is not too worrying that the third supplementary... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Sep.) The slump in the core infrastructure industries index eased in September, and this suggests that overall industrial output contracted by 8% in Q3. That’s a slight upside risk to our GDP forecasts. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep.) The strong rise in industrial production in September is consistent with our view that Japan’s economy will rebound faster than most anticipate. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was unchanged in... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) The 33.1% annualised rebound in GDP in the third quarter was unprecedented in size, but still left the economy 3.5% smaller than it was in the final quarter of last year. 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
