Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German second wave risk looks low The increase in coronavirus cases in Germany is a reminder that the virus has not been eradicated and suggests that local restrictions may be re-imposed periodically in the coming months. But for now... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update BJP building its political strength Recent developments have strengthened the ruling BJP’s hand in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of parliament). This should help to ease the passage of economic reforms, provided that the BJP has the... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish activity data for May show that activity in the retail sector bounced back more quickly than in the industrial sector as lockdown measures were lifted. Even so, the figures support our... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Sugar-high in consumption may not last Consumer spending is bouncing back more strongly than we had anticipated. However, that partly reflects pent-up demand and the strong support from government initiatives. Employment income has slumped... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Revised forecasts; policy stasis; football is back! Amid increasing signs that the Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis better than most we have upgraded our forecasts for GDP growth, and expect some clear daylight between growth in Sweden... 19th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy bouncing back strongly Data released this week have shown the Australian economy is rebounding faster than we had expected. While labour market data for May showed a further decline in employment, a fall in the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sino-Indian relations worsen, local lockdowns loom We can only hope that border tensions between India and China ease soon and there is no direct economic impact. But there may be indirect consequences. A further push back against Chinese investment... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline inflation was unchanged last month but the slow recovery in demand over the coming months should cause excess capacity to rise further. As such, we expect inflation to turn consistently... 19th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan keeps rates on hold, but easing likely to resume Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.125%, but given the poor outlook for the economy, we think it will cut again soon. 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) Just one week of New Zealand’s strict lockdown to curb the spread of Covid-19, fell in the first quarter. We therefore expect the hit to GDP to be concentrated in Q2 when the bulk of the lockdown... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tracking the recovery The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while all countries in the region are now rebounding, the pace of recovery varies significantly. The recovery is most advanced in China, Taiwan and... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s lockdown conundrum Most policymakers in Latin America are easing lockdowns even though the region is now the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic. This may be less economically damaging than keeping stringent... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (higher) forecast for Swedish GDP There are increasing signs that the Swedish economy has weathered the crisis better than we first feared. Accordingly, we now expect GDP to contract by ‘only’ 2.5% this year (previously -7.5%). 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (May) The 17.7% m/m rebound in retail sales in May indicates that, as the lockdowns were eased in many states, activity started to recover more quickly than we – and others – had been anticipating. As a... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A faster recovery now likely We were already expecting China’s economy to return to its pre-virus path faster than other major economies and sooner than most forecasters anticipate. But with output already back to year-ago levels... 16th June 2020 · 5 mins read