US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Retail and office pricing still unattractive Property valuations improved for the seventh consecutive quarter in Q3, following another sharp fall in equities earnings yields. But this was the smallest rise in valuation scores this year and... 24th November 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Household saving could remain permanently elevated The huge amount of personal savings built up during the pandemic, if unleashed, represents perhaps the biggest upside risk to the economy over the coming year or two. But even once the spread of the... 24th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Value recovery to pause Economic and property data for Q3 confirmed Switzerland and Scandinavia’s relative resilience in this pandemic. In fact, Scandinavian capital value growth improved across all sectors on an annual... 24th November 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Vaccines allow UK assets to catch up After having been hit particularly hard during the COVID-19 crisis, UK assets are well placed to perform much better now that COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook. Indeed, the... 24th November 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov) & Q3 GDP (Second estimate) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index for November confirms that the German economy is losing momentum but also that it is holding up much better than many other countries. We suspect... 24th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The relatively small fall in November’s flash composite PMI suggests that the hit to GDP from the second lockdown will be much smaller than the first and that our expectation of an 8% m/m drop in GDP... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: No respite for rents just yet Data for Q3 confirmed that while some office and industrial markets in the region recorded quarterly rental falls, weakness was still unsurprisingly concentrated in the retail sector. Core-CEE retail... 23rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Nov.) Buoyant foreign demand for electronics drove strong export growth over the first 20 days of November and this should remain the case over the coming months. 23rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, revised) The upward revision to Singapore’s Q3 GDP figures shows that the economy has rebounded strongly, and we expect the recovery to continue at a decent pace on the back of strong fiscal support and... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in consumer confidence in November suggests that good news about the vaccine has not done much to improve sentiment in the euro-zone. With the virus still spreading quickly and lockdowns... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Lockdown pushes recovery into 2022 The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property... 20th November 2020 · 25 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in September was much better than expected, but sales appear to have stagnated in October and the prospect of restrictions being imposed on all non-essential... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to give economy a shot in the arm We see substantial upside risk to our forecasts for next year, thanks to the prospect of a mass vaccination programme. But the near-term outlook is still gloomy, with November's PMI scheduled for... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Outlook brightening, but risk politicians mess it up COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook beyond the next few months. But there is risk that politicians will darken it again if they allow what we’re calling an “uncooperative” no deal... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
