Emerging Europe Economics Update Four charts on the downturn and economic recovery The effects of lockdowns have been felt unevenly across the region, with Romania and Turkey suffering among the largest falls in both retail sales and industrial production, while activity in Latvia... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) State-led infrastructure construction jumped last month and pushed up growth in fixed asset investment and industrial production. Meanwhile, growth in services activity turned positive and suggests... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Industry past the worst but recovery will be slow Industrial output ground to a halt in April but high-frequency indicators including electricity consumption and air pollution levels suggest that activity has edged up since then. However, lasting... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Climb back up the cliff will take much longer than the fall off it The 25% drop in GDP compared to its pre-crisis level was exactly in line with our forecast made in April. But even though the worst is now behind the climb back up the economic cliff will take much... 12th June 2020 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) 12th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How quickly will tourism recover? Tourism across the region has been decimated by the pandemic and is likely to be one of the last sectors of the economy to recover. This will weigh heavily on prospects in countries like Thailand... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The plunge in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the economy suffered a almighty hit to GDP in Q2 – we expect the economy to suffer one of the largest contractions... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Apr.) At its peak in April the lockdown reduced economic output by 25%, making the coronavirus crisis by far the deepest recession on record. The peak-to-trough fall in GDP was 7% in both the Global... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lifting lockdowns spurs confidence As the lockdown is lifted in Australia consumer and business sentiment is turning a corner. We expect consumer confidence and activity to continue picking up in line with easing restrictions... 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Conditions slowly improve, interest waiver dispute The gradual loosening of strict containment measures has provided a slight boost to activity, but with new COVID-19 cases still rising sharply, the recovery is likely to be slower and bumpier than in... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South African lockdown causing activity to collapse Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus and South Africa’s lockdown measures are taking a heavy toll on the economy and supports our view that the economy will decline sharply over the year as a... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The 25.1% m/m collapse in Mexico’s industrial production in April suggests that Mexico’s economy suffered a hefty blow in Q2. Although this may mark the bottom for industry, it will add pressure for... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Will households spend their savings? The bulk of the leap in the saving rate will be reversed as the economy opens and people start spending again but the desire to hold more savings post-lockdown combined with lower incomes will weigh... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) The large fall in machinery orders in April supports our forecast that non-residential investment will slump in Q2. With business confidence subdued, a recovery before the end of the year is unlikely. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: a regional bright spot The early signs are that activity is recovering quickly in Poland as lockdown measures are lifted. Provided that the virus is contained, we think that Poland will experience the smallest contraction... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read