Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thai protests a key risk to the recovery The renewed risk of domestic political unrest in Thailand following the declaration of a “severe” state of emergency could act as a further drag on the already beleaguered economy. 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery lagging behind Hard activity data from South Africa released this week point to continued weakness in the economic recovery in August despite the easing of containment measures. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The recovery in euro-zone industrial output has slowed but is not going into reverse. The impact of the second COVID-19 wave should be much smaller than the first and will be felt most in the services... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Faltering reform drive clouds Ukraine outlook The coronavirus crisis has already dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian economy and the risks to the outlook are growing: recent challenges to the independence of the central bank and anti-corruption... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bigger external surpluses put Asia under US spotlight The COVID-19 crisis has led to a ballooning of current account surpluses across Emerging Asia that is putting upward pressure on currencies. The shift to bigger external surpluses could also land the... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, Advanced), MAS Decision The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left policy on hold today as advanced GDP data showed that the economy rebounded well in Q3. However, with GDP still well below its pre-crisis level, the MAS... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru to benefit most from China’s recovery Latin America’s non-oil economies will see larger benefits than most other countries from China’s rebound. This provides grounds for cautious optimism about the prospects for Chile and Peru. But for... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold at 4.0% today, but it is too soon to call an end to the easing cycle. With the economy in need of further support, we think the central bank will resume... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for August add to the evidence that the recovery has remained strong, although the figures appear to have been flattered by a shift in the timing... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s next steps: lessons from the GFC The post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) experience suggests that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to raise the repo rate within our near-term forecast horizon (to end-2022). Investors... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The slump in industrial production eased in August but output is still well below its pre-virus levels. And the fiscal stimulus package announced today will do little to boost demand. The recovery in... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 3.3% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in August was largely driven by a delayed rebound in construction output. Manufacturing production only rose by 0.8%, and more timely indicators... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
