Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q3 2020 Preliminary) Output rose sharply in the third quarter and should recover further this quarter provided the third wave of coronavirus infections doesn’t spiral out of control. 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mutation in mink; Swiss the first to blink The prospect of a vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, clouds have darkened over Q4 and things will get worse before they get... 13th November 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Vaccine may allow the UK to close the gap on its peers 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Vaccine may allow the UK to close the gap on its peers The UK is one of the economies that stands to benefit the most from COVID-19 vaccines. As it has suffered by more than its peers on the way down, there is more scope for its bounce to be bigger on the... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3), Int. Trade (Sep.) The second estimate that euro-zone GDP rose by 12.6% q/q in Q3 was little different to the “preliminary flash” estimate published a fortnight ago and means that GDP was 4.4% below its Q4 2019 level... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine impact, tech crackdown, renminbi The coming week’s retail sales data are likely to signal that consumer spending, the part of China’s post-lockdown recovery that has lagged the most, is back to health. China is a rare example of a... 13th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for September add to the evidence the recovery was strong over Q3, although prolonged weakness in the tourism sector and the recent sharp... 13th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) Malaysia’s economy rebounded strongly in Q3 and while a second wave of infections will weigh on growth in Q4, we don’t think it will be long before the recovery is back on track. 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but clouds darken over Q4 The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland, the rising strain on the healthcare sector... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates will temper housing demand The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand... 12th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP under pressure to cut, vaccine boost to equities The weakness of the recovery in the Philippines means that the central bank (BSP) is likely to lower interest rates at next Thursday’s scheduled meeting. The consensus is for no cuts before the end of... 12th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s decline in euro-zone industrial output was largely due to the reversal of temporary effects in Italy, rather than a result of the second wave of COVID-19. We expect industrial production... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Sep. & Q3) We now know that the record breaking fall in GDP of 19.8% q/q in Q2 was followed by a record breaking rise of 15.5% q/q in Q3. But meagre growth in September shows that the recovery was rapidly... 12th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Sep. & Q3) We now know that the record breaking fall in GDP of 19.8% q/q in Q2 was followed by a record breaking rise of 15.5% q/q in Q3. But meagre growth in September shows that the recovery was rapidly... 12th November 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, new rupee forecasts The increased likelihood of an effective vaccine being developed is encouraging news for India. But even widespread vaccination would not restore India to economic health, and we would still expect... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine news boosts confidence in outlook While Japan’s stock market has largely shrugged off positive developments on the vaccine front, there’s little doubt that a vaccine would speed up the recovery of Japan’s services and export sectors... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
