Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (February) February’s small increase in the Composite PMI left it still below 50 and consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP will probably edge down again in Q1. The survey also suggested that price... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggests that the third COVID-19 lockdown hit the economy harder than the second lockdown in November. Retailers may have to endure a few more months of... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy increasingly shrugging off lockdowns Short localised lockdowns are becoming increasingly common in New Zealand and Australia as governments seek to contain virus outbreaks. But the impact on consumption is typically short-lived and... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy entered lockdown with strong momentum The pick-up in GDP in Q4 was stronger than most had anticipated. And while it still left output 2.9% below the peak reached ahead of 2019’s sales tax hike, other economic data released this week are... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2021) The rebound in the composite PMI in February supports our view that the economy is coping with the second state of emergency better than most had anticipated. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in February but it remained very low. Unless vaccine programmes accelerate to allow restrictions to be lifted soon, a sustained pick up in confidence remains months... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected 0.9% m/m rise in industrial production in January, driven by a 1% rise in manufacturing output, means that production is still lagging behind the recovery in goods... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 5.3% m/m surge in retail sales in January how quickly reopenings and the $600 stimulus cheques have fed through to stronger spending. The faster than expected fiscal boost means we now forecast... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metal imports: three trends to keep an eye on With the first batch of Chinese trade data for 2021 not due for another few weeks, this Update outlines the key developments to look out for. Overall, we expect imports of refined metal to fall back... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Jpn Trade (Jan. 2021) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2020) While some of the rise in exports in January was likely due to the timing of the lunar new year, they should have continued to rise faster than imports across this quarter, with net trade likely to... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP was revised up slightly in today’s release, and confirmed that the hit to the economy from the autumn lockdowns was much smaller than in Q2 last year... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production edged down at the end of last year but held up reasonably well during Q4 overall. At the start of this year, we think output will have been roughly unchanged; manufactures seem... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Denmark GDP (Q4 2020) The slightly smaller-than-expected 0.6% q/q increase in Danish GDP in Q4 left the economy 3.1% smaller than it was in Q4 2019. Although activity is likely to slow in Q1 – on the back of tighter virus... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
