Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The extraordinary rebound in New Zealand’s GDP was probably driven, in part, by the release of pent-up demand, but we still expect output to rise further in the months ahead. 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The latest surge in coronavirus infections, which has forced a number of states to re-impose lockdowns, resulted in a worse-than-expected decline in retail sales in November. With case numbers still... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (Dec.) & Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in the Composite PMI in December to just below 50 primarily reflected the partial lifting of virus restrictions in France. But with Germany now imposing tougher measures, the big picture... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The small rebound in the composite PMI in December suggests that GDP did not make much of a recovery after the hit to activity from the COVID-19 lockdown in November. But it is probably understating... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The small rebound in the composite PMI in December suggests that GDP did not make much of a recovery after the hit to activity from the COVID-19 lockdown in November. But it is probably understating... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus Our key calls for 2021 The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India will brighten the economic outlook next year, but India’s recovery will still be one of the weakest among major economies. One consequence is... 16th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Dec.) The rebound in the composite PMI in December is consistent with our view that the third virus wave will slow the recovery but won’t derail it. 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Nov. 2020) While export values edged down again in November, they should rise above pre-virus levels. That said, due to the weakness in services exports, overall exports won’t return to pre-virus levels until... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What if households unleash their savings? Due to lower spending and the generosity of government transfers, households are set to save $200bn more in 2020 than in 2019. With that rise equivalent to 14% of consumption, there are upside risks... 15th December 2020 · 11 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 0.8% increase in manufacturing output last month underlines that production is continuing to catch up with the recovery in consumption. Production will continue to rise, even as consumption... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) Manufacturing sales only edged up in October and the disruption from the coronavirus at home and abroad is likely to hold back growth in the next few months, but we are more positive about prospects... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
