Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Jan.) & GDP (Rev. Q4 2020) While the downward revision to Q4 GDP and the sharp fall in “core” household spending in January suggest that the economy faired a little worse than initially reported over the winter, we continue to... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Feb. 2021) The sharp rebound in the Economy Watchers Survey in February suggests economic activity is ending the quarter with some momentum. That supports our non-consensus view that the state of emergency won’t... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Border closure to knock 2% off GDP by end-2022 The slow progress in rolling out vaccines in New Zealand means that its border may only be reopened by the end of this year. With net migration boosting population growth by around 1%-pt per annum... 8th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan. 2021) The 0.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in January, down from 0.8% m/m in December, confirms that momentum in the sector is easing. Moreover, with services sector being harder hit by the... 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl The reports delivered at today’s opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) confirm that with the COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror the focus of China’s leadership has shifted away... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Risk averse Tokyo, mass vaccinations yet to begin While the Bank of Japan’s consumption index fell a bit more sharply than we were anticipating in January, it came off the back of an upwardly revised, virus-era-high in December. Indeed, our GDP... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA taking higher bond yields in its stride The Reserve Bank of Australia’s half-hearted response to the surge in government bond yields underlines that it is not overly worried about the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy. But... 5th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stage is set for a faster economic recovery India's economic recovery continues to proceed faster than we’d expected. We are revising our forecast for GDP growth this year to 13.5%, above consensus expectations of an 11% rise in output. With... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials strike hawkish tone ahead of the NPC The National People’s Congress has just kicked off in Beijing. We will publish an Update with our initial analysis once the key details from the meeting have been made public. Recent comments by... 5th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi still failing to entice foreign investors The Saudi government’s efforts to improve the Kingdom’s business environment and attract foreign direct investment in recent years haven’t had the desired effect. One result is that the government is... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Trade conflict with China knocking 0.5% off GDP While Australia’s non-iron ore export volumes to China have slumped by 40% over the past year, coal miners have been able to divert their shipments to other countries. The upshot is that the conflict... 4th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2020) The larger-than-expected 3.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy had one of the better performances in Latin America last year. But there is strong evidence to suggest that the... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s batch of whole economy PMIs suggest economic activity in non-oil sectors across the region eased last month on the back of tighter virus containment measures. Aside from the UAE... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Feb.) India’s PMI readings for February suggest that output has rebounded further above pre-virus levels so far this quarter. With fiscal policy turning more supportive and new virus cases remaining low... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The 3.1% q/q rise in Q4 GDP left output just 1.1% below pre-virus levels and we think it will surpass that threshold by Q2. 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Planning to do it alone The 14 th Five-Year Plan should provide a revealing view of the key challenges that China’s leadership believes it faces. High among them is a more hostile global environment. In the economic sphere... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
