US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The 2.2% drop in industrial production in February was largely a result of the severe storms that battered the country in the second half of the month and should be mostly reversed in March. But there... 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update External risks look manageable The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in February is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Economic growth surged in y/y terms in January and February. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Travel restrictions weighed on retail sales but boosted... 15th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Jan. 2021) The fall in machinery orders in January is not particularly surprising given that they had surged significantly above pre-virus levels in December. We still expect business investment to have risen a... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The small 0.2% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in January masks a concerning 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output. The sector will have also fared poorly in February following the... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Turkish activity figures for January suggest that the economy held up relatively well despite the tightening of COVID-19 containment measures around the turn of the year. And there are encouraging... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Legacy of Fukushima nuclear meltdown 10 years on On the 10 th anniversary of the meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station, we take a closer look at the disaster’s lasting legacy of higher electricity prices. On the eve of the pandemic... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA underlines determination to keep policy loose The Reserve Bank of Australia this week pushed back against mounting expectations of policy tightening both via its market operations as well as via a dovish speech by Governor Lowe. We reiterate our... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Markets are jumping the gun on RBI rate hikes Financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the RBI is on the cusp of monetary tightening, perhaps due to fears of a re-run of the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But India isn’t as vulnerable to a... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: lockdown-hit to industry will ease… a bit Tighter virus containment measures imposed in late-2020 in South Africa weighed on manufacturing and mining output in January. We think that industrial activity picked up more recently, but the... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The rebound in the RICS survey balances in February suggest that home sales were sustained at a very high level even before further policy support was announced in the Budget. Strong sales and limited... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Mar.) Korean trade data suggest that the external sector will have its strongest quarter since 2018. With semiconductor demand set to remain elevated, at least in the short term, exports are likely to... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: semiconductor shortages add to H1 headwinds The disruption to auto production caused by semiconductor shortages is yet another reason (alongside tight COVID-19 restrictions) to expect growth in Central and Eastern Europe to struggle in H1 2021. 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus State elections could brighten reform outlook The upcoming state elections in India will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be important in... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) The slowdown in the pace of South Africa’s recovery in Q4 was less sharp than expected, but the economy is unlikely to gather much momentum over the coming quarters and we still expect GDP to be... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
