India Data Response India Services & Composite PMI (Jan.) India’s PMI readings for January suggest that the economy is still rebounding and, with fiscal policy finally being loosened significantly, a decent recovery over the coming quarters looks a stronger... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may extend QE one more time We are more upbeat about the outlook for the economy than the Reserve Bank of Australia. But the RBA seems keen to err on the side of caution. With the latest extension of its QE programme already... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec. 2020) The robust 0.9% m/m rise in Brazil’s industrial production caps off a strong recovery in the sector over the second half of 2020. But the unwinding of fiscal stimulus and the rampant second wave of... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) Given that all of the major economies have already published their Q4 data, it came as no surprise that euro-zone GDP contracted by 0.7% q/q. With strict containment measures still necessary to... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A more credible Union Budget By bringing large off-balance sheet expenditures back into official spending plans and setting more realistic targets for revenues, the Finance Ministry has presented a more credible Union Budget for... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.7 in January was a little weaker than we had expected, but it remains close to the three-year high of 60.5 reached in December and at a level consistent... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Metals demand to hold up, despite weaker China PMIs The latest fall in China’s manufacturing PMI readings is a further sign that its economy is slowing. Nevertheless, activity there, and elsewhere in Asia, remains strong and we think that it will hold... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q4) & Man. PMIs (Jan.) The strong set of January manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics indicates that industry continued to cushion the blow from virus restriction-driven declines in services activity at the... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update At last, the Finance Ministry breaks the shackles India’s Finance Ministry set aside the desire for near-term fiscal consolidation and today announced significant stimulus in the FY21/222 union budget. That should support the economic recovery over... 1st February 2021 · 4 mins read
India Data Response India Manufacturing PMI (Jan. 2021) India's manufacturing PMI reading edged up in January but, given signs elsewhere that the industrial recovery has lost a bit of steam, policymakers should still be aiming to provide support to the... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector slowed in January. But that’s not too surprising given that output was already well above trend – capacity utilisation... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) A strong rise in GDP in November and an unexpected gain in December suggest that the economy carried far more momentum into the new year than expected. Nevertheless, as a result of the latest... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss economy in for a tough few months This week's data support our view that the Swiss economic recovery has shifted into reverse this quarter. Meanwhile, next week’s data are likely to show that Sweden’s economy expanded relatively... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2020) Confirmation that Germany avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 last year is of little comfort given that its economy will almost certainly shrink in Q1 this year. A strong recovery is still likely... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
