Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The 3.1% q/q rise in Q4 GDP left output just 1.1% below pre-virus levels and we think it will surpass that threshold by Q2. 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Planning to do it alone The 14 th Five-Year Plan should provide a revealing view of the key challenges that China’s leadership believes it faces. High among them is a more hostile global environment. In the economic sphere... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the divergence in Central Europe in Q4 The full breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central Europe showed that net trade exerted a drag on growth in Poland while it provided a boost to Czechia and Hungary. But looking ahead, mounting headwinds to... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COVID-19 outbreak putting recovery on ice The growing strains in Brazil’s health system caused by the latest COVID-19 outbreak are likely to result in a further tightening of containment measures in the coming days, hitting the economic... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February PMI readings suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places in Asia. Global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. 2nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2021) & Capex (Q4 2020) The unemployment rate fell in January despite the state of emergency, and it should fall further over the course of this year as employment rebounds in line with the economic recovery. Meanwhile... 2nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued recovery in manufacturing February’s global manufacturing PMI survey painted a positive picture, implying that output growth has continued to accelerate outside China and that employment is picking up. Supply disruptions are... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery remains weak at start of 2021 Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has continued to be slow going as the tightening of COVID-19 restrictions has weighed on activity. The slow start to the vaccine rollout and the Kingdom’s voluntary... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Softer China PMIs not a huge concern, for now China’s February PMI data were more subdued but still suggest that economic activity remains elevated, and the data elsewhere in Asia point to persistent strength in commodities demand in the coming... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February showed strong increases in output and new export orders in Poland and Russia, while manufacturing conditions deteriorated in Turkey and Czechia. The survey also... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2020) Turkey’s economy continued to recover in Q4 2020 and was one of the few economies around the world to grow over last year as a whole. But there are signs that activity faltered at the tail end of the... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading was virtually unchanged in February and remains consistent with a strong recovery in the sector so far this quarter. That should continue over the coming months... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Feb.) The latest manufacturing surveys suggest that factory activity didn’t receive the boost we had anticipated from travel restrictions over the Spring Festival. Nevertheless, we think activity will... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan likely to cap bond yields before long The global surge in long-term interest rates means that 10-year JGB yields are now the highest they have been since the launch of negative rates in 2016. While we expect the Bank of Japan to widen the... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
