Global Economics Rapid Response Greenland tariffs: the political consequences would trump the economic It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic... 18th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for fourth-quarter GDP looking weak The data released this week suggest that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, although recent experience shows that the quarterly GDP by expenditure data could tell a different story. 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan. 2026) The housing market ended the year on a weak footing, with both sales and house prices continuing to fall. The outlook for this year is a little brighter, with tightening supply of new listings likely... 16th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Iran spillovers, CEE activity, Russian inflation spike The spillover effects for economies in Emerging Europe from the protests in Iran this week will largely depend on how commodity prices move. From a political standpoint, the protests are another blow... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Dec 2025) While December’s industrial production figures were generally more positive than previous months’, the key takeaway when looking back on last year is that tariffs have not triggered any manufacturing... 16th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone households still cautious We learnt this week that the euro-zone’s household saving rate remained very high in Q3 last year. With households still reporting low levels of confidence, we think they will continue to be reluctant... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: US trade deal and TSMC earnings add to optimism The trade deal struck between Taiwan and the US, alongside another bumper earnings report from TSMC, strengthens our conviction that Taiwan will record another year of rapid GDP growth in 2026. 16th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending binge reinforces case for RBA to hike With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, private consumption is almost certain to have recorded a bumper gain last quarter. Moreover, as firms report increasingly severe... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Portugal’s outperformance last? Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of... 15th January 2026 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s growth to ease but will continue to lead the Gulf The UAE’s economy enjoyed another strong year in 2025. Rising oil output will continue to support headline GDP growth over the coming quarters. And while there are signs that that activity in the rest... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) We expect GDP growth to be just 1.2% this year as growth in household spending, investment and exports remains subdued. Despite soft GDP growth and only modest employment gains, the unemployment rate... 15th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Nov 2025) While the decline in manufacturing sales in November was broadly as expected, the surprise slump in wholesale sales suggests that GDP growth was quite a bit weaker than expected last quarter. 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry is in structural decline Euro-zone industrial production rose in November, and the outlook for certain sectors – such as defence and pharmaceuticals – is fairly bright. But overall, industry is likely to remain weak and it... 15th January 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Indian equities: another year of underperformance ahead India’s equity market ended 2025 with its worst underperformance relative to its emerging market peers in three decades. Although we expect India’s economy to remain a global outperformer in 2026, we... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany's GDP (2025) The first estimate of annual GDP for 2025 confirms that Germany’s much-vaunted fiscal “stimulus” did not get underway last year and that economic activity remained broadly stagnant. We think things... 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
