Asia Chart Pack Singapore: moving beyond zero-COVID In a bold move that will be closely watched across the region, Singapore is set to drop its implicit target of pursuing zero local COVID-19 cases, with restrictions set to be eased gradually from... 28th July 2021 · 14 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Pandemic rebound peaks but recovery story still intact The initial post-pandemic resurgence is nearing its zenith, but strong policy support and limited private sector debt should allow most economies to grow at a healthy pace over the next two years. The... 28th July 2021 · 45 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 looking brighter While the regional economic recovery stuttered in Q2, it appears to be gathering pace in Q3. New COVID-19 cases have dropped back, particularly in Chile and Uruguay suggesting that their rapid... 27th July 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Durable Goods (Jun.) The June durable goods data were a little weaker than we had expected, but the further rise in underlying orders suggests that business equipment investment growth is slowing only gradually. 27th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Will the pandemic boost productivity growth? Productivity growth surged during the pandemic last year, but that was principally due to the disproportionate job losses in low-productivity sectors like leisure & hospitality, which raised the... 27th July 2021 · 19 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2, provisional) Korea’s recovery looks set to continue in the quarters ahead after GDP rose further above its pre-crisis level in Q2. Provided the economy proves relatively resilient to the latest wave of the virus... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade recovery levelling off Real world goods trade edged down in May, suggesting that the recovery has levelled off. True, this slight fall comes after an impressive rebound since May last year, global trade remains well above... 26th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics German Ifo Survey (July) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in July suggests that the rebound in Germany may be losing some momentum. But Germany will still post very rapid GDP growth in both Q2 and Q3 and... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2021) Today’s flash PMI suggests that the services sector was hit by Tokyo’s state of emergency but we still expect activity to recover towards the end of this quarter. 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
FX The FOMC announcement may extend the dollar rally While the US dollar has fallen back a little against most currencies in the second half of the week as the sharp sell-off in risky assets and currencies on Monday was reversed, it looks set to end the... 23rd July 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Delta fears, Hungary-EU spat, more NBU tightening Concerns have grown over the past week about the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 but high vaccine coverage across much of the region has reduced the risk that policymakers will be forced to... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Drop in yields unlikely to do much for housing As the recent decline in bond yields have been most pronounced at the long end of the curve, it is unlikely to trigger much of a renewed fall in five-year mortgages rates. We expect mortgage rates to... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Limited signs of price pressures fading in the PMIs The overarching message from today’s batch of flash PMIs was that higher inflation isn’t going away anytime soon in major advanced economies. Some of the inflation indicators edged away from their... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
