Global Economics Update Delta variant is a much bigger threat to EMs than DMs The apparent success of vaccines at preventing severe illness and death from the Delta coronavirus variant should mean that it does not pose a major threat to recoveries in most advanced economies... 14th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The euro-zone’s industrial sector took a step backwards in May as the global semiconductor shortage hit auto production. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have picked up over the past month following the Fed’s more hawkish turn at the FOMC meeting in early June. Outflows may intensify over the coming months... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update The difficulties of capturing productivity improvements Recent methodological changes by the UK statistics body highlight the difficulties of capturing productivity improvements in official economic data. Although the revisions will make only a small... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation dropped for the first time in five months in June and is set to fall sharply over the coming months as commodity prices drop back. With headline CPI inflation also likely to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2, Advanced) The economy stumbled in Q2 after the government reimposed restrictions in response to a spike in virus cases, but with new infections down and the government rolling back containment measures, the... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect high US inflation to weigh on Treasuries While the Treasury market shrugged off another stronger-than-expected CPI print today, we continue to expect the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise over the next few years, as high inflation proves... 13th July 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics A whiff of stagflation Supply shortages will ease only gradually over the next couple of years, putting sustained upward pressure on core inflation and constraining real activity. We expect core inflation to remain above 3%... 13th July 2021 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Turkey’s activity figures for May, the month of a three-week national lockdown, showed that the industrial sector came through unscathed but that retail sales were hit hard. More timely evidence... 13th July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Headline trade growth was stronger than expected last month, partly thanks to an increased supply of semiconductors. But exports remained below their recent peak and we still think shipments will... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s RRR cut & the outlook for markets The surprise decision on Friday by the PBOC to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for China’s banks suggests to us that there will be further downward pressure on government bond yields in China... 12th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) India’s consumer price inflation remained above the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range for a second consecutive month in June. But if we are right in thinking that inflation has peaked, the... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The small 0.1% m/m gain in Mexico’s industrial production in May came despite a concerning 0.7% m/m drop in manufacturing production as shortages continued to hamper the auto sector. While there are... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher vaccine supply will render lockdowns obsolete With the virus outbreak in New South Wales going from bad to worse we’re pencilling in a marked slowdown in Q3 GDP growth. However, given that deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine have been brought... 12th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update GDP to rebound in Q3 despite restrictions in Tokyo While new infections in Tokyo have picked up, the fourth state of emergency in the capital is partly a political move designed to placate fears that the Tokyo Olympics will trigger yet another virus... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Unpacking Banxico’s minutes, Sinovac success? The fairly hawkish minutes to Banxico's last meeting, where it delivered a surprise 25bp hike, reaffirm our initial view that more tightening is in the pipeline. We now expect a further 125bp of hikes... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
