Latin America Economics Weekly Worrying signs from Castillo, regional re-opening The first steps from Peru’s newly-inaugurated President, Pedro Castillo, provide plenty of worrying signs for investors and suggest that local financial markets will remain on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Iceland’s shorter working week not a holy grail The success of reduced working hour trials in Iceland was largely founded on adopting better working practices which, if embraced elsewhere, might offer no-cost ways of achieving better work-life... 30th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly At risk of stalling, but Q3 may make up for Q2’s weakness This week brought further signs that the “pingdemic” weighed on economic activity and evidence that in June, consumers amassed excess savings at a faster rate than in May. As a result, there’s clearly... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The monthly data suggest that GDP expanded by 2.5% annualised in the second quarter, despite the lockdowns in April and May, and the likely 0.7% m/m gain in June will provide a strong hand-over to the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds over Asia, bright spots in EM Europe & Lat Am While the pandemic continues to hold back recoveries in Southeast Asia, the near-term outlook appears brighter in Emerging Europe and Latin America. However, low vaccine coverage in the latter means... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Reopening effects to persist in Q3 The surge in German inflation, to 3.8% on the national CPI measure in July, may have got some pulses racing in Frankfurt, but core euro-zone inflation remains very low and we continue to think that... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) India’s core infrastructure industries index rebounded in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms in June, suggesting that an industrial recovery is well underway. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The re-opening of Mexico’s economy caused GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5% q/q in Q2, and we suspect that this preliminary figure will be revised up. But with new virus cases rising sharply, the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter as exports moderated after an exceptional Q1. The path of output is likely to remain subdued until Hong Kong’s borders reopen. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, provisional) Taiwan’s economy only contracted slightly last quarter despite a major COVID outbreak, as strong exports cushioned the blow. Large backlogs of orders should keep exports elevated which, alongside a... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccination threshold may be hit in four months With new virus cases hitting fresh highs this week, Sydney’s lockdown has been extended until end-August and looks set to last for months given the high transmissibility of the Delta variant... 30th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2 2021) The disappointing 0.6% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q2 suggests that industry may have fared worse than expected as input shortages took a greater toll on output. With virus restrictions easing... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Another disappointing quarter Strong activity data for June confirm that the economy entered Q3 on a relatively strong footing. But while vaccinations are limiting the number of severe cases and deaths, daily coronavirus cases... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
