Canada Economics Focus Residential investment now the key downside risk The sheer scale of the surge in residential investment since the pandemic means it now presents a key downside risk to the outlook. At best, the widely held assumption that residential investment will... 6th July 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) Euro-zone retail sales rose back above their pre-pandemic level in May. And as Covid restrictions continue to be lifted, spending in the services sector is recovering very rapidly, which will provide... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.) Despite a further deterioration in the availability of building materials, construction output rose at the fastest pace since 1997 in June. That suggests output in the sector is now well above pre... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (May 2021) While the further acceleration in wage growth in May was again largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will stay elevated as the labour market tightens and vaccines fuel a... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2) The Bank of Canada’s latest surveys show more evidence of inflationary pressures building but, given firms and consumers expect higher inflation to be temporary, the Bank is unlikely to be too... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s whole economy PMIs for the Gulf were a mixed bag, although one common thread was that weaker external demand offset a pick up in domestic demand. Strong vaccine rollouts mean that most virus... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) The PMIs point to the euro-zone economy recovering strongly in June and provide evidence that price pressures are now spilling over into the services sector, even in the periphery. Nevertheless, we... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s PMI readings for June should soon reverse as the second virus wave has subsided and restrictions are being eased. But a rapid reopening increases the risks of fresh outbreaks... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia: Retail Sales (May 2021) Retail sales are sure to decline in June as the impact of the recent lockdowns weighs on household consumption. Even so, the rise in retail sales in May means the risks to our forecast the consumption... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The US dollar rally may have further to run The US dollar is ending the week stronger against most currencies, although it has fallen back a little this afternoon despite the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report. While that reaction... 2nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and Treasury yields Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long. 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP to surpass pre-pandemic level in July The upward revision in March and smaller-than-expected fall in April mean that GDP is now on track to surpass its pre-pandemic level in July, a couple of months earlier than we previously thought... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) Exports were weaker than expected in May, but that was largely due to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage rather than weakening external demand. And with the rise in imports boding well for... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 1.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in May only partially reversed the falls in output in the three preceding months. And while surveys point to a stronger reading in June, the sector... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
