Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Retail Sales (May) Retail sales fell again in May but the preliminary estimate suggests they rebounded strongly in June as non-essential stores re-opened. Consumers may transition away from spending on goods as the... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam-US tensions ease, new GDP forecasts Surging virus cases have cast a shadow over Vietnam’s near-term outlook, but there has also been some good news in the form of Monday’s announcement of a resolution to the long-running currency... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Hit to GDP from pingdemic not huge, but unhelpful We estimate that the “pingdemic”, which has contributed to 1.1 million people self-isolating in the week ending 14 th July, could reduce monthly GDP by 0.5-1.0% and is surely exacerbating the current... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update The implications of the pandemic decline in births Birth rates have fallen in several advanced economies during the pandemic. Although we think that fertility rates will bounce back and there won’t be material long-term impacts, this presents a small... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) The second consecutive decline in the flash composite PMI in July came as no surprise to us as we expected the pace of the economic recovery to naturally slow after the big gains following the... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the Delta variant: what we know so far A rise in virus cases in Israel has prompted the government to re-impose restrictions on activity, including mask mandates and vaccine certification for large events. There are signs that the Pfizer... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s euro-zone PMIs confirm that the economy is still rebounding rapidly and that price pressures are continuing to build. While the Delta variant poses a risk to our above-consensus GDP forecasts... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Jun.) The underlying trend in retail sales volumes is a bit weaker than the 0.5% m/m rise in June suggests. And other evidence indicates that the resurgence in the virus and the “pingdemic” may have taken... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly A coronavirus wave for each Olympic ring While consumption remains a weak link, robust exports and capital spending in Q2 may have helped the economy just about avoid a double-dip recession. And while Japan will be in the midst of a fifth... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity comes storming back One key lesson from the past 18 months is that economies can rebound quickly once virus waves have subsided. Even with this mind, the pace at which activity in India has rebounded from its second wave... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB’s new guidance and its implications for E-Z bonds We don’t think the changes to the ECB’s guidance announced today or the Bank’s recent strategy review materially alter the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone. However, they make... 22nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Downhill from here? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated in q/q terms last quarter but that output edged down in June on the back of softer industrial and construction activity. We think China... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
