Global Economics Chart Pack Product shortages ease as activity weakens Recent data suggest that global economic activity was even weaker than we initially thought in Q2, with GDP probably contracting in several major economies including the euro-zone, UK and China. The... 13th July 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank pulls out all the stops with 100 bp hike The Bank of Canada’s 100 bp hike today and its accompanying communications have led us to upgrade our forecast for the policy rate to 3.5% by the October policy meeting, from 3.0%. As the commodity... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger than expected 1.3% rise in consumer prices in June, which pushed headline inflation to 9.1%, from 8.6%, nails on another 75bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. But with commodity prices... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update UN forecasts confirm broad demographic headwinds The UN’s latest population projections highlight that demographic headwinds are set to mount in almost all economies outside Africa. The most significant downward revisions were to its forecasts for... 13th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s 0.8% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production was largely due to a huge rise in Ireland’s output. Excluding Ireland, production decreased slightly in May. Moreover, high-frequency... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (May) The recent resilience of GDP to the drag from the high rate of inflation probably won’t last and there is still a big risk that the economy falls into recession. Even so, the surprisingly strong rise... 13th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD: To parity and beyond? While the euro’s rapid fall over the past couple of weeks means that a lot of bad news about the euro-zone economy now appears to be discounted, the trends driving the common currency lower may... 12th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB be worrying about the euro? The euro hit parity against the US dollar today and we wouldn’t be surprised if it falls further. While we think it would take big moves in the trade-weighted exchange rate for the ECB to intervene in... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in June, but the core rate rose further. We expect inflation to climb higher above the RBI’s target in July and August, which should be enough for the MPC... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) Industrial production in Mexico rose by a disappointing 0.1% m/m and timely indicators suggest that the sector was even weaker still in June. With growth in the US weakening, we expect industrial... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish housing slump reinforces weak retail outlook The slowdown in the Swedish housing market has the potential to delay the recovery in the retail sector this year, as it weighs on retail sales and makes conversions to residential even less viable... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A strong first half of the year for the Saudi economy The Saudi economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in Q1 and we think this strength will carry through to the rest of 2022. Our GDP growth forecast of 10% for this year lies well above the... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs picked up over the past month and are likely to persist over the rest of the year. That’s a particular threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Why is Nigeria struggling while oil prices are so high? Amidst sky-high oil prices, a stream of downbeat comments from Nigerian government officials on the state of the economy may seem mind-boggling. In this Focus, we outline what’s behind the country’s... 11th July 2022 · 13 mins read
US Economics Focus Is a recession coming soon? We think that the economy is well-placed to handle higher interest rates and anticipate a period of weak economic growth rather than an outright recession: Rate-sensitive spending is a relatively... 11th July 2022 · 17 mins read
