India Economic Outlook More frontloading to come Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo... 7th July 2022 · 19 mins read
China Economics Update The limitations of China’s “new infrastructure” push Spending on high-tech “new infrastructure” should result in higher returns than adding more highways and railway lines. But it is not as effective a channel for cyclical policy stimulus. And a state... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s small rise in industrial production in Germany was not big enough to change our view that output in the sector is likely to have declined in the second quarter. And with the timelier surveys... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s small rise in industrial production in Germany was not big enough to change our view that output in the sector is likely to have declined in the second quarter. And with the timelier surveys... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures remain intense The latest data suggest that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain intense. Although core inflation edged down from 3.8% in May to 3.7% in June, this appeared to be down to... 6th July 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE current accounts now in worrying territory Surging global commodity prices have hit Central and Eastern European economies like a tsunami in recent months, causing a severe terms of trade shock and current account deficits to blow out. These... 6th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (May) The small increase in euro-zone retail sales in May, after a steep fall in April, suggests that high inflation remains a drag on consumption. Although re-opening effects may have boosted consumption... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Another look at Italy’s debt arithmetic It seems most likely that Italy will be able to put its public debt ratio on a gradual downward trajectory, even as interest rates rise, by running primary budget surpluses. But if 10-year government... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy heading into choppy waters Having defied gravity in 2021, this year is shaping up to be much tougher for Chile’s economy and we think that the economy will contract in both Q3 and Q4. Despite the weakening growth outlook, high... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What rate of wage growth is acceptable for central banks? Even though workers are accepting cuts in their real pay, nominal wage growth is still above “acceptable” rates for central banks in DMs of 3% to 4%. This underlines why interest rates need to head... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response S&P Global PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMIs were the proverbial mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that activity in the Gulf economies has remained robust and there are signs that firms are increasingly passing on higher costs to... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) June’s final Composite PMIs confirmed the message from the flash release that activity is softening and that firms expect weaker conditions ahead. And price pressures remain intense throughout the... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jun.) India’s June PMIs show exceptionally strong activity in the services sector is offsetting slower growth in manufacturing. That may give the RBI some added confidence to continue frontloading policy... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2) The increase in long-run inflation expectations in the Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys further raises the probability of the Bank enacting a larger 75 bp interest rate hike next... 4th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Russian gas export ban would hold back recovery If Russia decided to end all exports of natural gas to Japan, we suspect that Japan’s GDP would fall by around 0.5%. However, the hit could be larger as there is now less scope to reduce energy usage... 4th July 2022 · 3 mins read
