Capital Daily Headwinds growing again for US bonds and equities June’s US Employment Report lends support to our forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by more than is currently discounted in markets, pushing up Treasury yields this year. And... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Market moves may give the Fed an easier task With the June employment report suggesting fears of an imminent recession are misplaced, the Fed looks set to press ahead with aggressive rate hikes over the coming months. That said, recent sharp... 8th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina, Banxico minutes, Brazil data dump While Argentina’s new finance minister has made some encouraging noises about sticking to the current IMF deal, there’s still no acknowledgement that the real exchange rate needs to weaken to restore... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Zero COVID, zero growth China’s economy almost certainly contracted last quarter. Perhaps the most interesting thing we’ll learn from the GDP data on Friday is how comfortable the government is with that fact. One other... 8th July 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation expectations too high for the Bank The falls in commodity prices this week point to some relief ahead for CPI inflation, but the Bank of Canada will be more focused on the rises in long-run inflation expectations and wage growth in the... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to play it safe The Bank of Korea (BoK) has raised interest rates by 25bp five times so far this cycle, and further hikes looked nailed on for the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday. But whereas the consensus is... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Soft period looms for Sweden after a strong Q2 The stronger-than-expected rise in Sweden’s GDP Indicator in May means that we will undoubtedly be revising our Q2 GDP forecast for the country higher when we publish updated forecasts in the coming... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro nears parity, energy effects erase German surplus The depreciation in the euro to its lowest level in almost two decades against the dollar this week in large part reflects investors’ view that the ECB will tighten less aggressively than the Fed. The... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Bond rollout intended to prevent infrastructure slump Policymakers are reportedly bringing forward some planned government bond issuance from next year to support infrastructure investment in the second half of 2022. This will help avert the slump in... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy will give the next PM a rough ride The next Prime Minister may walk into 10 Downing Street while the economy is in the middle of a recession and just a month before a rise in CPI inflation to over 10% in October marks the worse point... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policy tweaks should provide some relief to rupee New measures to reduce gold imports are unlikely to lead to a substantially narrower current account deficit and support the rupee, not least because the decision to discourage fuel exports will have... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Reshoring production bodes ill for profits The surge in firms’ capital spendings plan for the fiscal year that started in April to around a record high could be due to firms finally undertaking projects that have been held back by supply... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity holding up this year but will weaken in 2023 The latest data show that consumer spending is defying downbeat sentiment and rising interest rates by continuing to strengthen. Indeed, we have been arguing for some time that strong financial... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price falls, Saudi & UAE fiscal loosening, PMIs Oil prices have fallen over the past month as global recession fears have mounted but, while they are likely to decline further over the coming years, they will remain high by past standards. This... 7th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) The recent falls in commodity prices mean that, after soaring in May and probably improving again in June, the trade surplus will decline in the coming months. Nonetheless, as we expect commodity... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The further narrowing in the trade deficit in May reflects the strength of exports and implies that net trade provided a decent boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was close to 1%... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
