Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Monetary policy will be loosened next year With inflation surprising to the upside in Q3, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to revise up its near-term forecasts for inflation in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. What’s more, the... 7th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) German industrial production rose significantly in September but we doubt this is a sign of things to come. With industry facing headwinds from high energy costs, rising interest rates and cooling... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia (Q3 GDP) Economic growth in Indonesia accelerated in the third quarter, but this is likely to be as good as it gets. We expect lower commodity prices, tighter monetary policy and elevated inflation to drag on... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why our euro-zone GDP forecast is below consensus Despite energy price caps and direct support for households, we think euro-zone private consumption will fall further than most anticipate in the coming months, and we expect investment and exports to... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final euro-zone PMIs for October paint a clear picture of falling activity and sky-high inflation. We expect the ECB to prioritise the fight against inflation and press on with raising the deposit... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strength in business investment won’t be sustained We’re revising up our estimate of Q3 business investment as capital goods shipments surged and firms plan to spend the most on research and development in years. However, with a global manufacturing... 4th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Goods price pressures still intense The recent easing of global supply chain problems could put some downward pressure on euro-zone goods inflation soon. But equipment shortages are still a major problem for manufacturers, while their... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Int’l Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & Labour Costs (Q3) A drop back in exports and small rebound in imports means the trade deficit bounced back to $73.3bn in September, from a downwardly revised $65.7bn. With that weakness in exports likely to last for... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle nearly over Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to slow the pace of rate hikes is the beginning of the end for its tightening cycle. But we don’t expect a pivot towards interest rate cuts next year. 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of PMIs picked up in most of the region but there remains a stark divergence in growth prospects between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) There were broad-based falls in Russian industrial production and retail sales in September. The economy may have narrowly avoided another q/q contraction in GDP in Q3 as a whole, but there’s clearly... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Oct.) Our composite tracking models suggest that the economy is increasingly likely to fall into recession in 2023, although the risks of a downturn beginning before the end of this year still appear... 2nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set for further weakness Although the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI rose in October, a closer look at the surveys shows that there was a widespread deterioration in EM industry. Highly-open manufacturing economies including... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
