US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production in July was much stronger than we expected and provides another clear sign that the economy is still in expansionary territory. That said, the likely drag on... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in headline inflation to 7.6% in July left it lower than the Bank of Canada’s recent forecast but, amid continued broad upward pressure on core prices, we still judge that the Bank is more... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected 6.8% q/q annualised expansion in Israel GDP in Q2 confirms that the Q1 contraction was just a blip. Economic activity remains strong and alongside the red-hot inflation... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (August) The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun/Jul.) June’s labour market figures revealed further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a slightly less tight labour market. That said, by any metric the labour market is still exceptionally... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022. 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What recessions mean for the labour market Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft... 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Manufacturing sales volumes only inched up in June and, with the manufacturing surveys on both sides of the border weakening in recent months, the outlook is growing even more challenging. 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 19.6% y/y last month and we think that the headline rate will rise a bit further. Policymakers are likely to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate from 14.00%... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic impact of the Qatar FIFA World Cup The 2022 Football World Cup that kicks off in November will provide a significant boost to Qatar’s economy in Q4, but we doubt that the economic legacy of the tournament will live up to officials’... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation picked up to 2.7% y/y in July due to strengthening underlying price pressures, but we think that it is now at or close to a peak and will gradually fall back over the rest of this year... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector. We... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year on the back of a strong reopening boost. Although higher commodity prices will drag on the recovery, with the tourism sector... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q2 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy grew in Q2 driven mainly by private consumption, though the overall figure disappointed mainly due to fluctuations in stockbuilding that won’t last. The recovery should persist through... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2022) Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in Q2, consistent with a fall of 6% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms – a much better performance than analysts had expected and than had seemed likely a few months ago... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
