US Economics Weekly Energy prices keep on rising The 390,000 gain in payrolls employment last month demonstrates that the real economy is holding up well, although the further rise in energy prices will put households under even more pressure. 3rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining’s heydays are over Mining accounted for less than 10% of GDP last quarter for the first time since 2015 and with mining firms not responding to soaring commodity prices with higher investment, that decline has further... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rising prices won’t prevent solid rebound in Q2 The renewed drop in industrial production and the weakness in retail sales volumes in April has raised concerns that Japan’s recovery will continue to disappoint. However, with consumer prices rising... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy reinforces case for frontloading GDP data for Q1 released this week showed that the economy weathered the Omicron wave pretty well, and the timelier data suggest a solid performance so far in Q2. That said, there were also further... 3rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Is low household saving a serious threat? We doubt that the low saving rate represents a serious threat to the economy. But with slower employment growth likely to limit gains in income later this year, it adds to our sense that the recent... 2nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The April activity data for Russia released today show that the imposition of Western sanctions has caused a sharp fall in oil and gas production, a plunge in motor vehicles output and resulted in a... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Demand weakening but supply improving slightly The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial activity weakened a touch in May. But while the forward-looking components of the surveys imply that weaker demand will weigh on output in the... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel levy in South Africa, primary season in Nigeria The extension of a fuel levy cut in South Africa will help to contain fuel price pressures in the near-term, but the extra fiscal costs come at the same time that it looks like the government will... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 56.1 in May, from 55.4, was better than we had anticipated and suggests a continued easing of supply shortages is supporting activity. But we expect a... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism in Colombia and Brazil? Populist Rodolfo Hernández is now the favourite to become Colombia’s next president and this has buoyed local financial markets this week, but we think that the scope for a further rally is limited... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Weak China demand won’t hold back oil prices Despite a rise in May, China’s PMIs still point to weak Chinese demand, which will continue to weigh on industrial metals prices. However, the war in Ukraine will remain the bigger driver of energy... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Stagflation taking hold The slump in German retail sales in April is a reminder than surging inflation is a headache not only for the ECB but also for households whose purchasing power is being eroded. Stagflation is... 1st June 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Risks to consumer spending forecast tilted to the downside April's money and credit data provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown in April wasn't too severe. But it may take time for the cost of living squeeze to fully filter through into... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil embargo, PLN/HUF divergence, inventory boost The EU's embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude and petroleum products will be painful for Russia, but it won't be a disaster for as long as commodity prices remain high and Russia can export... 1st June 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monarchical achievements & “killer apps” Real per capita incomes in the UK have risen by 1.9% on average each year since Elizabeth II came to the throne in 1952. But the monarchical bragging rights go to Harald V in Norway, under whom GDP... 1st June 2022 · 5 mins read