Europe Economics Update Gas shock bigger than 1970s oil shocks For most major euro-zone countries the terms of trade shock from higher gas prices this year will be bigger than both the 1974 and 1979 oil shocks. How this plays out in the coming months depends on... 23rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug.) With the latest surge in wholesale gas prices set to intensify the cost of living crisis, it is probably only a matter of time before the activity PMIs start ringing the recession alarm bell. We think... 23rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August) August’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy is now contracting. While global price pressures have become less intense in the past few months as supply chain problems have eased, soaring... 23rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 2022) August’s PMIs indicate a further slowdown in the manufacturing sector as demand slumped even further, while services continue to bear the brunt from the record Covid-19 wave. 23rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Rebounding real incomes to support consumption After a year-long contraction in real disposable incomes, the sharp declines in energy prices over recent weeks are finally providing some relief. Alongside continued strong employment growth, we... 22nd August 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM GDP: further weakness ahead Recent national accounts data show that many of the major EMs experienced a difficult second quarter. Looking ahead, a combination of weaker global demand, high inflation and rising interest rates is... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of US economic weakness Weakness in the US economy over the coming quarters is likely to result in softer (rather than a collapse in) demand for Mexico’s goods exports as supply constraints fade, but the recovery in the... 22nd August 2022 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery loses steam at the start of H2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic rebound following the hit from lockdowns had petered out in July. And despite increased policy support, growing headwinds will continue to... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s industrial production, retail sales and construction figures for Poland showed a stabilisation in activity after the surprise 2.3% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. But we expect the economy to stagnate... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long Australia’s house prices are now falling at a similar rate as they did during the 2017-19 downturn, which was the largest in the country’s modern history. Home sales remain well above pre-pandemic... 22nd August 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s plan for state banks, Q2 GDP Suggestions this week by Brazil's presidential front runner Lula that state banks will play a bigger role would only aggravate some of the underlying problems in the country’s economy. Elsewhere, the... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT plays with fire, Poland’s GDP shocker The surprise interest rate cut by Turkey's central bank this week, despite inflation reaching close to 80% y/y in July, threatens to sow the seeds of the next currency crisis. The banking sector... 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Better news for the Fed going into Jackson Hole With the rebound in activity growth in July coming against a backdrop of easing inflation, we still think the Fed will hike rates by a smaller 50bp next month. 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The small gain in retail sales volumes in June appears to have been more than reversed in July. As the Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates further and there is little reason to expect an... 19th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway and Switzerland still thriving Data published this week show that –in contrast to Germany – Norway and Switzerland’s economies are continuing to perform well. But rising inflation will force central banks in both countries to... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
