Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (May 2022) Export volumes recovered a bit in May, but they are likely to stay weak in the near term until supply shortages dissipate and allow exporting automakers to ramp up production again. Markets Drop-In... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2022) The fall in GDP at the start of the year was due to the disruption to activity from the Omicron outbreak. Growth will have rebounded strongly in the current quarter, but we suspect falling house... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak Q2 may be a sign of things to come Global economic activity might have contracted slightly in Q2, which would be the weakest outcome in recent history aside from the height of the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis. Part of the... 15th June 2022 · 13 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales in May and downward revisions to previous months’ gains suggest that surging prices might finally be taking their toll on real consumption. But with the latter still... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response SA Activity Data (Apr.) & Nigeria Inflation (May) South Africa’s activity data for April showed that flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts dealt a big blow to industrial sectors, while retail sales held up well. GDP probably still... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The increase in industrial output in April only partially reversed the decline in March and shows that the economic fallout from the Ukraine war is still holding back production. With survey data... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) The May data suggest that a post-lockdown recovery got underway across most parts of the economy last month. It is likely to have progressed further in June. But the recent resurgence in infections in... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs appear to have eased over the past month, but rapidly tightening external financing conditions mean that this won’t last for long. Large outflows already seem to have pushed... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: assessing the impact of the truckers strike A strike by truck drivers in Korea is causing significant disruption. Prolonged industrial action could add to strains on global supply chains and would lower Korean GDP. Even if the strike ends soon... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The 0.9% m/m rise in April, combined with a large upward revision to March, means that manufacturing sales volumes have finally risen above their pre-pandemic peak. While the recovery in the motor... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (June) A second consecutive small monthly rise in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment in June means it was still well below its level at the start of the year, and pointing to a recession. The... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ to raise ceiling on 10-year yields The weakening in the yen to a 24-year low and a crack in the Bank of Japan’s ceiling on 10-year yields today is putting significant pressure on policymakers to respond. FX intervention is a... 13th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s current account deficit flashing red Chile is likely to run a current account deficit of 7% of GDP this year, the widest since 1985. Worryingly, this deficit is being increasingly funded by volatile portfolio inflows, making the economy... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s rebound has further to run Greece has already made a more complete recovery from the pandemic than most of its peers and the short-term outlook still looks relatively good. The country is less exposed to Russia-Ukraine risks... 13th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) Turkey’s activity figures for April suggest that the economy has held up well since last year’s currency crisis, but robust activity has added to inflation pressures and contributed to the widening of... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m fall in real GDP in April wasn’t as weak as it looks, but it nonetheless increases the chances that the economy is slipping into recession. While this is unlikely to prevent the Bank of... 13th June 2022 · 4 mins read