Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted sluggish growth of just 0.1% m/m in June and the data suggest that the first estimate of Q2 GDP growth may be revised down. The backdrop of weakness in the US means... 11th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank has further to go The Norges Bank said in June that it was likely to raise its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next week, but we now think it is more likely to go for a 50bp hike. Whatever it decides on interest... 11th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Why we expect a euro-zone recession We think the euro-zone will soon fall into recession as high inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak global growth take their toll. While the economy should recover next year, the rebound will be... 11th August 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update What will this recession look like? We expect a recession in 2022/23 to be driven by high inflation, with a contraction in real consumer spending at its epicentre. But with household and corporate balance sheets still relatively healthy... 11th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in delinquencies not a major threat The rise in new delinquencies on consumer loans over the first half of the year mostly reflects rising interest costs. With debt levels low, real incomes on track to begin rising again amid a drop... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Increased risk of “second-round” effects We’ve been warning for some time that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect, triggering a recession. The prospect of even bigger rises in utility prices on 1 st October and in the... 10th August 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the fall in participation With most workers who left during the pandemic mostly returned to the labour force by early 2022, it is little surprise that growth of the labour force has slowed. But the decline in the participation... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU & the rule of law dispute: why do EU funds matter? EU funds will provide a key boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years as the region navigates a challenging macro environment and slowing global growth. Disputes with the... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rhine troubles add to pressure on German industry The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. But if it persists until December it could... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Consumer prices were unchanged in July and there's a good chance that prices will fall outright in August. With core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.3% m/m last month, which was a 10... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The implications of an escalating Taiwan crisis The extent to which neighbouring countries would be affected by an escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan would depend both on which sides they take and on the nature of restrictions imposed... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increase in CPI-ATE to a record-high will have raised eyebrows at the Norges Bank. We think another 50 basis point hike at next week’s interim meeting is likely. 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Drop in productivity most likely a statistical mirage The 2.5% slump in productivity over the past year – the worst since records began in 1948 – is another illustration of the chasm that has opened up between the GDP and employment figures. The only... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Surging unit labour costs are a danger to the US stock market Today’s news that unit labour costs in the US nonfarm business sector grew at a near double-digit annual pace in Q2 2022, as soaring wages interacted with negative productivity growth, hasn’t ruffled... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will Canadians retire themselves into a recession? The sharp increase in retirements this year presents downside risks to our forecasts for employment and, with GDP growth already faltering, further raises the probability that economic activity will... 9th August 2022 · 2 mins read
