China Economics Weekly Energy crunch threatens to spread nationally Southwest China is currently experiencing power shortages due to a severe drought and heatwave. Officials in Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality have responded by ordering week-long halts to... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea: tightening cycle to finish by year-end With inflation at a 24-year high, the Bank of Korea (BoK) looks certain to raise interest rates again at its meeting on Thursday. We have pencilled in another 25bp hike, which would take the policy... 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Rebuilding Ukraine: how much, who pays, what’s next? The war in Ukraine is dragging on, but there is now growing attention on the country’s eventual reconstruction. We think the government’s target of $750bn of total funding is unlikely to be met ($300... 19th August 2022 · 23 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jul.) We doubt the recent resilience in consumer spending will last for much longer. Even so, July’s rise in retail sales provides another reason to think that the Bank of England will raise interest rates... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Shrinking construction sector adds to recession risk Materials and labour shortages are weighing on construction activity and, although those headwinds may ease over the rest of the year, tighter monetary policy is likely to cause activity to fall. The... 18th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q2) Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the... 18th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update 50 is the new 25 for the Norges Bank Following today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp at the second consecutive meeting, we now expect the Bank to make it a hat-trick of 50bp hikes at the next meeting in... 18th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Struggling for momentum China’s post-Omicron rebound has fizzled out and the prospects for near-term growth are poor. Virus outbreaks are happening with increasing frequency. The housing market remains in a downward spiral... 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jun.) The hard activity data out of South Africa for June suggest that the economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2, and we think that activity will remain weak in the coming quarters too. 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central and Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2022) GDP in Hungary and Romania continued to expand strongly in Q2 by 1-2% q/q, but the Czech and Slovakian economies barely grew at all and there was a shocking 2.3% q/q contraction in Poland. Looking... 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: regional outperformer in 2022 The robust 1.5% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy’s recovery will be among the strongest in the region this year. Strong growth, alongside upside inflation surprises and the... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) While overall retail sales were unchanged in July, the details were far more encouraging, with a price-related fall in gasoline sales freeing up households to increase spending on other goods. With... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation nearing its peak Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Aug.) Home sales fell further below the pre-pandemic norm in July and pre-construction sales seem to have fallen through the floor, but there is no evidence yet that this is weighing on construction. 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jul. 2022) Japan’s trade deficit widened to a record high in July but it should start to shrink over the coming months as supply shortages and commodity prices continue to ease. 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
