UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy heading from bad to worse Nigeria’s demonetisation efforts are likely to add to already-high economic costs of the country’s unorthodox policies. The resulting currency falls will fuel inflation further and disruptions to... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Early zero-COVID exit would hurt economy in 2023 A shift away from zero-COVID would be positive for China’s economy over the medium term. But the immediate disruption of reopening would probably exceed the cost of keeping the policy in place... 10th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How far will Hunt’s Autumn Statement go to appease the markets? 1668700800 Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Jonas Goltermann, a senior economist from our Global Markets team, held a client briefing shortly after the Chancellor’s 17th November statement, to discuss his fi
Japan Economics Update Global downturn will drag Japan into recession We still expect consumer spending to rise rapidly over the coming year. But with many overseas trading partners entering recession, exports will decline. That will prompt firms to pull in their horns... 10th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) The Philippines economy rebounded in the third quarter of the year, but we expect growth to slow over the coming months as high inflation, rising interest rates and weaker global demand weigh on... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Mobile payment continues to soar While mobile and other digital payment methods are still used less in India than in many EMs, the rapid expansion initially triggered by the pandemic has continued over the past year. A well-developed... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct. 2022) Current readings picked up in October’s Economy Watchers Survey but remain well short of the peaks seen after previous virus waves ended. The deepening gloom captured by the outlook readings suggest... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s increase in euro-zone retail sales is unlikely to be sustained. Falling real incomes and rock bottom consumer confidence suggest that household spending will fall sharply over the winter... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Sep. 22) The 2.1% rise in labour cash earnings in September was the fastest since 1997 but it was mostly driven by volatile bonus payments and won’t be sustained. However, regular earnings growth remained... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the coming recession compare to the past? The impending global recession will see sluggish growth or outright contractions in GDP in most major economies, with Europe faring the worst. Accounting for changes in trend growth over time, we... 7th November 2022 · 4 mins read
