Africa Economics Weekly Uninspiring politics in Nigeria, SA’s external position Nigeria’s two main political parties have selected presidential contenders, setting the scene for a long campaign season ahead of elections in early 2023. Lots can happen until then, but with more... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From one policy mistake to another? Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments this week, even as he presented a report warning of the risks of aggressive policy tightening, leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada is singularly focused... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Reports of the consumer’s death greatly exaggerated In contrast to reports from individual retailers, the aggregate data show that retail inventories are still lean, while the very strong May CPI data revelated no signs whatsoever of any discounting. 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF review, Mexican industry recovering This week's staff-level agreement between the IMF and Argentina, for the first review of its $44bn deal, gave little assurance that the Fund will knuckle down on the country’s growing inflation and... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP and BoT to go slow on rate hikes The BSP and the BoT this week signalled that they are likely to raise interest rates over the coming months. But in both cases we think the pace of tightening will be gradual. 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant rehabilitation or tech rectification? If the Ant IPO is back on, as some are reporting, this is less likely to signal that the regulatory crackdown is being rolled back than that regulators feel they have successfully brought the formerly... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Farewell, Cecilia Skingsley; rate hikes & house prices We expect house prices to fall in Sweden and Norway this year as rising interest rates push up borrowing costs. But the peak-to-trough declines are likely to be smaller than those in Canada, Australia... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly High inflation will keep ECB hawks in charge this year Euro-zone inflation is likely to remain higher than the ECB expects over the rest of this year. That will keep the balance of opinion on the Bank’s Governing Council tilted firmly in favour of the... 10th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA could raise rates even faster than we anticipate We’ve long been arguing that the RBA will lift rates more sharply than most analysts anticipate and the RBA’s surprise 50bp rate hike this week is consistent with our view that rates will reach 3% by... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Jump in working hours points to strong Q2 rebound The recent jump in overtime hours largely reflects severe labour shortages at hotels and restaurants rather than any surge in demand. However, with overall working hours on track for a strong rise... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi economy set for a strong couple of years Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery is likely to be one of the strongest in the emerging world over the next couple of years as oil output is ramped up and fiscal policy is loosened. We expect GDP growth... 9th June 2022 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update What impact would removal of Trump tariffs have? Cancelling all of the Trump tariffs on China would give a smaller direct boost to China’s export sector than many might think. More important would be the signal a unilateral rollback would give that... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s import demand to remain subdued Commodity import volumes revived a little in May, perhaps as virus-related restrictions started to ease. Although demand should pick up in tandem with activity as major cities re-open, we think that... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Bank of Korea to cut rates next year as headwinds mount The Bank of Korea (BoK) is almost certain to hike interest rates further this year, but with financial risks receding, economic growth likely to slow and inflation set to fall back to target by early... 9th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read